Elliot Mann's Blog

The Floyd of Rosedale T-shirt, Iowa Hawkeyes version. Buy it...

Mon, 20 May 2013 13:20:00 -0400

The Floyd of Rosedale T-shirt, Iowa Hawkeyes version. Buy it here. [Empty Bandwagon]

(* - This shirt is in no way affiliated with the University of Iowa or any registered trademarks affiliated with the University of Iowa.)

Dogos for Equality.

Wed, 27 Mar 2013 12:16:00 -0400

Dogos for Equality.

College Football's National Signing Day: Overhyped, kind of stupid, creepy as hell, but absolutely important

Tue, 19 Feb 2013 16:12:00 -0500

Photo credit: Jesse Johnson / US Presswire
When last place might not matter: Here’s why college football’s National Signing Day’s rankings matter and where they might be wrong

1. On Jan. 25, a high school senior named Nate Andrews from Fairhope, Ala., decided to attend Florida State University, where he would also play Division I football. Previously, he verbally committed to Minnesota, but as teenagers are wont to do, he changed his mind. Andrews hadn’t put ink to paper and even if he had, that might not have mattered. One teenage recruit this year tattooed the Auburn logo on his forearm, before ultimately deciding to rescind his commitment to attend Alabama.

It happens. According to the Andrews’s high school football coach, Andrews decided to pick Tallahassee because it was a bit closer to home and he also struck up a good relationship with FSU’s defensive coordinator, who had previously coached defensive backs at Alabama. Good enough reasons – not to mention that Florida State has a more prestigious football program than Minnesota. The change was met with frustration from the Twitter feeds and message boards relevant to Minnesota college football, but many expected Andrews to switch schools, particularly after he attracted some late interest from Alabama.

Two themes emerged from Florida State and Minnesota fans though. Gopher fans bemoaned the idea that their coach couldn’t bring in talented recruits; Florida State fans cried that their coach was bringing in too many untalented recruits. Mr. Andrews was, at the exact same time, seen as either the one who got away or the one who shouldn’t have been invited.

College football recruiting can be kind of stupid at times.

2. Meanwhile, as Mr. Andrews made his collegiate decision, another teenager named Reggie Spearman debated what school would be best for his future. In August, the linebacker prospect picked Illinois, but as he continued to visit other schools, he wasn’t so sure anymore about attending school in Champaign, Ill. Schools started swarming. Iowa offered him a scholarship, as did Minnesota, Purdue, Syracuse, Indiana and seven other schools.

When asked about his recruitment, Spearman once said, “I’m still committed to Illinois but Iowa really opened up things and I am really just undecided.” He visited a few of the schools, each place jockeying position on Rivals’s recruiting pages.

When it came time to make a decision, Spearman took out a Syracuse hat, but then dropped it and picked up an Iowa Hawkeyes cap and put it on his head. Again, that’s pretty standard in recruiting. That isn’t the disgusting part. That came from Spearman’s Twitter feed, when he retweeted the messages he received from adult men trying to convince him to attend their favorite university.

A sampling of the messages he received after choosing Iowa (everything sic):
- “lmao this dude pathetic. you are a goddamn joke son.”
- “LOL..U picked 3 losers…good luck with that.”
- “HAHAHA.. Are you delusional? Good luck. You can’t even beat Iowa State.”

There are pages more of similar stuff, although most of it is congratulatory by now.

Keep in mind, Mr. Andrews and Mr. Spearman are three-star recruits; that is, they are not considered to be among the top tier, five-star players who command the most attention. That’s when the crazy gets turned up to 11. Five-star defensive end recruit Chris Jones of Houston received death threats from fans of Ole Miss and Mississippi State when he was rumored to be picking between the schools.

Again, grown men are harassing 17 and 18-year-olds over the Internet about what college the teens should attend – to the point where they are threatening bodily harm. If reading that doesn’t give make your eyebrows and nose scrunch together – and it should – try this. Take the phrase “17-year-old boy” out of the above sentence and place “17-year-old girl” in its place.

Several writers – Spencer Hall and Adam Kramer, for example — have written about the inherent creepiness of college football recruiting, but it’s worth repeating. SB Nation’s Black Heart Gold Pants even labels all recruiting posts “Caring Is Creepy.”

Again, 17- and 18-year-olds are being hounded by grown men who they have never met in person or even talked to on the phone. They are being repeatedly told that they should attend STATE U and when these teens decide a school that isn’t Johnny Crazyperson’s favorite, the crazies let their freak flag fly.

I bristle when people compare professional sports to slavery, but I’ve much more troubled when I overhear people brashly yelling about college football recruiting like this: “Yeah, we got that boy coming to town! Locked him up!” This insanity is not evidence of how competitive college football is. It’s evidence of how many crazy people like college football.

College football recruiting is nearly always creepy.

3. In 2004, the Minnesota Gophers were coming off a 7-5 year, capped by a bowl win over a floundering Alabama squad. Yes, fortunes have changed since then.

Minnesota’s in-state recruiting class included a three-star linebacker from the town of Hamel, Minn., who played at Wayzata High School. He had committed early on to the Gophers and coach Glen Mason, but eventually broke off his commitment once Ohio State and Jim Tressel came calling.

James Laurinaitis — son of “Animal” from wrestling’s “Road Warriors” and later “Legion of Doom” — would go on to become a three-time consensus All-American, two-time Jack Lambert award winner and two-time Dick Butkus award winner as the nation’s top linebacker, and also the Bronko Nagurski winner as 2006’s best defensive player in college football.

ThatLaurinaitis spurned Mason was not lost on either the fans or the media. It gave additional ammunition to the idea that Mason could not keep Minnesota’s top prospects at home, whether or not that label was truly deserved. In two years, Mason was out, replaced by a former tight ends coach who had never been a coordinator at any level of collegiate or professional football. While the new coach was certainly lacking on-field accomplishments, he boasted supposed big-time recruiting success at North Carolina and Texas.

A proven coach who had built a program up from a laughingstock to a fringe bowl team was now looking for work, while a former used car salesman who had never called a play outside of the high school level was now running a Big Ten program due to perceived weaknesses and strengths in the area of recruiting.

The directive was and is gin-clear: Recruiting matters.

4. I love looking at old newspaper front pages, particularly from historic events. It’s interesting to see how different newspapers play different events, how large of a headline is used, which photos are chosen, everything down the line. This archive from Newseum.org allows you to look at different front pages from historic events, such as the Terrorist Attacks on 9/11, the Inauguration of the First Black President and the death of Osama Bin Laden.

No matter the scope of the event, newspapers will traditionally never use an exclamation point in a headline. In college, one teacher told us an exclamation point in a headline should be used only in cases “like that of Jesus’s Resurrection, but even then, strongly think twice about it.”) As you see in those historic events mentioned, no exclamation points were used.

But on Feb. 7, 2008, the second-most read newspaper in Alabama printed “Tide No. 1 in recruiting!” on the front page, A1, above the fold. It’s important to note that the recruiting headline dwarfs that of the picture below, “Twisters leave 55 dead in south.”

Recruiting is about hype. That hype almost always either inflates or deflates the excitement of a fan base. Tim Brewster brought a 17th-ranked class to Dinkytown in 2008 – people (briefly) thought he maybe wasn’t quite so crazy for bringing a square of Rose Bowl turf to practice. Again, that was short lived. Illinois’s five-year talent last year ranked sixth in the conference, yet the finished in last place on the field.

This year, Jerry Kill brought a class ranked 12th in the conference and people are ready to declare that the Gophers will never be able to compete in the Big Ten. But the manic depressive bipolarity of message boards and Twitter ramblings aren’t the best way to understand recruiting.

As I’ve written before, recruiting at the fringe bowl level and below can be a crapshoot. It’s hard to tell which players will become J.J. Watt and Eric Decker, just as it’s hard to see how players like Bryce Brown and Dillon Baxter won’t become instant program changers.

But recruiting rankings aren’t meaningless, they should just be seen as more fluid, more speculative than they are. People seem to understand that Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects are going to be filled with high school pitchers who flame out and college third basemen who strike out too much against upper-tier pitching. Recruiting rankings should be looked at the same way.

We all want to know if our team is going to be worth a damn during the coming year. We want to know if the Gophers are going to be able to stop a run up the middle. We look to recruiting to tell us that, which isn’t completely off-base. Stars do matter. We should take into account that it’s only one data point though and also, stars are different than the team rankings.

College football recruiting is kind of stupid. It’s definitely almost always creepy. Yet it is important and it definitely matters. That said, most fans are probably looking at it incorrectly.

5. I recently computed the five-year recruiting ranking average for all 124 Football Bowl Subdivision teams. This shows us what teams should have had the best talent in 2012. To do so, I averaged each team’s ranking from 2008 through 2012 on both Rivals and Scout recruiting services. Then I sorted those five year averages from Rivals and Scout, averaged those two rankings with each other. I did this to see if we can use recruiting rankings, on their own, as a predictive model for a team’s success.

Let’s take a look at two teams in the same conference.

Team A:
• The five-year talent ranked 65th among all teams in 2012, tied with Washington State. In three of the five years, Scout ranked this team’s classes 85th, 99th and 112th.
• In 2009, the team hired a new coach, who had actually retired from the school a few years prior.

Team B:
• The five-year talent of Team B ranked second overall. In three of the five years, Scout ranked this team first overall and then third overall, twice.
• Team B’s coach entered his 15th year at the school in 2012 – we know that coaching stability is often linked the long-term success of a program.

But what happened when these two teams played each other? Team A beat Team B by 18 points. It wasn’t a fluke, either. Team A was ranked No. 2 at one point in the year and finished ranked No. 5 in the BCS. Football Outsiders ranked Team A fifth overall. Team B finished the year ranked No. 19, by both the Associated Press and Football Outsiders.

Team A was Kansas State. Team B was Texas. By nearly every metric, Texas had better talent and better resources. But why didn’t that translate on the field?

Listing why Texas underperformed in 2012 gets us away from our topic at hand, but that example shows that recruiting rankings shouldn’t be considered foolproof indicators of future success. There are certain coaches who can identify talent that often slips through. For example, Collin Klein was a three-star, pro-style quarterback recruit coming out of high school. Considering that Klein was moved to wide receiver during his freshman year and that Kansas State runs a run-heavy offense, that “pro-style” bit could be a typo. But, picking Texas and Kansas State for this example also ignores a lot of other things that the Rivals/Scout recruiting average got right. Recruiting rankings also don’t quantify Bill Snyder’s “Coach of the Century” genius.

Alabama, which ranked first in five-year recruiting average, won the National Championship in decisive fashion. Ohio State finished the season ranked third in the final Associated Press Top 25 poll; the Buckeyes’ five-year recruiting average ranked third in the country as well. Georgia was ranked fifth in the final AP Poll, the Bulldogs’s five-year talent average ranked 10th. Generally, if you rank near the top of the five-year talent average and your team isn’t coached by Lane Kiffin, your team is going to perform pretty well.

If you take the Big Ten recruiting average from 2008-2012, eight teams ended up playing worse than that ranking, as compared to Football Outsiders’ 2012 Rankings. (Pictured in the box below.)

Instead, let’s rank the conference’s classes against each other and then project them against last year’s Big Ten standings. To break ties, I used the Big Ten’s divisional tiebreaker system. (In this case, it essentially went head-to-head with two teams tied, and if that didn’t settle the tie, AP and or BCS rankings were used. In the case of Penn State, Football Outsiders’s 2012 rankings were used.)

When the national numerical rankings were removed, we find a bit more accuracy. Three times, the recruiting rankings hit exactly the right position. Three times were near misses. Three other times, the ranking averages missed by two places and two times — in the case of Illinois and Northwestern – the recruiting rankings were badly off the mark, missing by six places in the standings each. So half of the time, the recruiting rankings were fairly indicative of eventual performance.

For comparison, I made game-by-game picks at the beginning of 2012. My picks had one hit (Purdue) and six teams off by one position in the standings. Two picks missed the actual results by two spots and three were bad misses, I picked Iowa to be four spots better than they ended up, while I picked two teams wrong by five standing spots each. (I picked Penn State to completely fold and Wisconsin to walk over its division.)

A lot more goes into a team’s success than recruiting, but if a team generally ranks highly in recruiting, they often do so in college football’s polls, as well. However, comparing Football Outsiders’s yearly team-by-team rankings with five-year recruiting averages shows that smaller schools and non-traditional football powers typically have recruiting rankings that are lower than their performance rating. For example, Northern Illinois had a five-year recruiting ranking of 105th in 2012, but finished the year ranked 34th nationally by Football Outsiders.

This occurs for a few reasons, most obvious is that few five-star, cant-miss prospects decide to enroll at schools like Kent State University, particularly when Nick Saban dangles an offer to play at Alabama. Statistically speaking, it’s easier to bet a player to succeed who is already the size of a collegiate athlete.But another reason for this is that fewer resources are available for the companies who analyze, chart and evaluate prospects at these, well, “less than” schools. Those letter known prospects are also attending fewer all-star camps, where many prospects first become well-known.

Consider that from 2008 to 2012, neither Rivals or Scout ranked a single Northern Illinois recruiting class better than 75th. Both services ranked only two classes during that period above 90th. Jerry Kill and his staff were adept at finding players who fit their system and also had slipped past the radar of other schools and largely, the recruiting services.

Is Jordan Lynch still a two-star player today? On the same token, is Johnny Manziel still projecting as a three-star quarterback who could be moved to safety?

Stars do matter, but if you’re at Northern Illinois, Kansas State two years ago or Minnesota, the path to success isn’t going to come first from a top ranked recruiting class. Mid and lower-tier schools are going to become successful by recruiting players who can grow into becoming five-star type players. They aren’t going to see many finished products, so to speak.

On National Signing Day, Gopher Illustrated’s Zach Johnson appeared on 1500ESPN and talked about this. The classes at the top of the recruiting world are easier to separate, Johnson said, whereas the middle of the pack and lower schools can be fairly interchangeable.

Winning the National Signing Day rankings if you’re a marginal program only increases excitement beyond realistic expectations. See: The Tim Brewster Era or Ed Orgeron’s brief tenure at Mississippi. Or what will happen to Tim Beckman at Illinois if the Fighting Illini stumble again this year.

6. If you read the newspaper, listened to the radio, watched TV or looked online, one message was clear: the Gophers recruiting class was ranked dead last in the Big Ten Conference. But waiving around an arbitrary ranking – one that we’ve proved isn’t etched in granite – is kind of a misinformed way to report on recruiting.

Yes, the Gophers were 12th in the Big Ten, according to Rivals and Scout. Reporting that isn’t incorrect. But it is kind of missing the forest through the trees.

As MV of The Daily Gopher has said on Twitter, looking at the rank alone maybe isn’t the best way to gauge the potential of a recruiting class. For example, classes are limited by the amount of players they can bring in. (SEC teams, of course, can strike that last part.) The Gophers brought in 19 recruits, with an average Rivals ranking per recruit of 5.53. That is the same number as No. 7 ranked Illinois, which brought in 25 recruits and also No. 8 Iowa, which brought in 21 recruits. For teams at the lower levels, the team ranking isn’t necessarily the number people should be hyping.

In addition to the player average, people should look at attrition. Ideally, teams recruit good players and keep them on campus. As MV noted, the 2012 Gophers had the worst attrition rate in the conference. Northwestern, a team that surprised many expectations, kept the largest percentage of their players on campus from the last five years.

Instead, we should look at these type of numbers, in addition to what players are being brought in. Did a school fill immediate needs? In the case of these recruits, did they have other offers from BCS-level teams?

When looking at the Gophers, they had an immediate need at inside linebacker, along with smaller holes in the depth chart at running back and wide receiver. The Gophers will also need to replace two starting cornerbacks in 2013. For the most part, Kill and his coaching staff found players who can theoretically fill those gaps.

Included in the 2013 class who could play this year:
• Junior college linebacker Damien Wilson, who was named the national junior college player of the year, will immediately be given the chance to start at inside linebacker and has already enrolled,
• Running back Berekley Edwards, who brings a level of speed the Gophers have been lacking during the past few years and had offers from Iowa and California;
• Quarterback and possible receiver Donovahn Jones, who spurned Missouri shortly before National Signing Day and who also had interest from Arkansas and South Florida, among a handful of other schools,
• Junior college linebacker De’Vondre Campbell, who switched his commitment from Kansas State and also had offers from Texas and Tennessee.
For an entire rundown of the class, GopherSports.com has videos and bio information on each of the recruits.

So what does the Gophers’ 2009-2013 recruiting average look like? It’s not great. The Gophers have the 63rd ranked class, good for last in the Big Ten. In 2012, Northwestern and Indiana tied for the last place in the conference’s five-year recruiting rank. On the field, Northwestern finished fifth in the conference and Indiana – which tied with Minnesota and Iowa, who they beat – finished with two conference wins.

Let’s take two teams again:

Team A:
• Ranked 39th in our five-year recruiting ranking average,
• Played in the Big Ten and had a first-year head coach.

Team B:
• Ranked 105th in our five-year talent average,
• Played in the MAC and had a second-year head coach.

One of these teams ended up ranked 108th by Football Outsiders.One of these teams played in the Orange Bowl and was ranked 33rd nationally by Football Outsiders.

Team A? Illinois. Team B? Northern Illinois, a team put together by the coaching staff now at Minnesota.

This doesn’t mean the Gophers suddenly have a recruiting class that should be ranked more highly. It simply means that the Gophers are well positioned to modestly surprise some teams and fans who aren’t paying close attention. Yes, recruiting matters. But it’s also worth noting that Jerry Kill prides himself on finding players the bigger schools have ignored.

Recruiting matters, but for programs like the Gophers, the building blocks of rebuilding aren’t going to come from a National Signing Day ranking.

Bielema's exit sparks question marks: Why did he go and who will take his place?

Thu, 06 Dec 2012 20:51:00 -0500

Bielema Face photo credit: My telephone during the 2012 Rose Bowl, when Bret Bielema watched Russell Wilson spike the ball with no time remaining.

1. Only days after qualifying for a third straight Rose Bowl, Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema has decided to trade “On Wisconsin” for “Woo Pig Sooie.”

Bielema officially announced the move at a press conference on Wednesday; Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports first reported the move a day earlier.

In trading Madison, Wis., for Fayetteville, Ark., Bielema throws himself into the thunderdome that is the SEC West. Instead of going to the Big Ten Championship by default, instead of competing with Ohio State and a Penn State program about to be nailed with scholarship and bowl restrictions, Bielema will line up across the sidelines from Nick Saban and Les Miles at least once a year. Instead of trying to contain Braxton Miller for two more years, he will need to dream up ways to stop Johnny Manziel for another three. And instead of complaining about SEC recruiting tactics, Bielema finds himself in the heart of those off-season, living room battles.

The Arkansas job represents a modest annual pay bump, from the $2.5 million he earned this year at Wisconsin to a reported $3.2 million, according to the of Kurt Voigt of the Associated Press.

2. Still, why leave? Some have surmised that Bielema reached the ceiling of the Wisconsin program, that he wanted to pursue the challenge of leading the Razorbacks to a championship. He said as much to ESPN during his first press conference as Razorback head coach. Others guessed that he was frustrated watching his assistants leave for better paid jobs; he also mentioned that in those same interviews. Another theory is that if Bielema truly wants to chase a national championship, Arkansas has a better shot than Wisconsin.

But let’s consider what Bielema is trading.

In the Big Ten Leaders division, he would begin competing with a rebuilt Ohio State, which is no doubt positioned to become the class of the conference for the immediate future, especially considering that the Buckeyes had somewhat of a down year and still finished undefeated. Urban Meyer will no doubt clean up in recruiting like he always does and across the conference, Michigan also proves a difficult challenge on the field and in recruiting.

Other than those two, Wisconsin is currently the third-best program in the conference; with the weak Leaders Division, you could argue that it’s the second-best job in the Big Ten. Penn State can go undefeated for the next three years, but still won’t sniff a post-season bowl. Purdue just fired its coach again. Illinois, with a first-year coach, have lost 14 conference games in a row and Indiana, well Indiana is really excited about where Tom Crean has the basketball team.

3. Now consider the SEC West.

Among these seven teams, two were considered the best two in the country for much of the year. Another team is led by a player who might be the first freshman Heisman trophy winner ever.

If Urban Meyer and Ohio State are intimidating, Nick Saban and the Alabama war chest should be downright terrifying. Then follow that up with a road game at Baton Rouge. Two years ago when a two-loss Arkansas played a BCS bowl – they were blown out by both LSU and Alabama by 24 points both times. You round things out with Texas A&M and Meyer disciple Dan Mullen at Mississippi State.

Two years ago, Arkansas played in that BCS bowl. But look at Auburn, a doormat this year in the SEC West. Three years ago they won the National Championship. Things can dovetail quickly with the amount of talent in this conference, ask Tennessee. This isn’t to say that Bielema can’t coach or to ignore his accomplishments. He can flat out coach. But it is a bit misguided, if not unrealistic, to expect that Bielema will immediately continue to win 10 games a year like he did in Madison.

4. While Barry Alvarez certainly did the heavy lifting in building a strong program capable of winning the conference, Bielema advanced the Badgers into a perennial candidate to win the conference. During the 45 years and five coaches before Alvarez and Bielema, Wisconsin football won only 39 percent of its games, compared to 66 percent since.

As much as Bielema was a walking twitter hashtag, he routinely delivered results on the field.

Where does Wisconsin turn now? The first Badger acolytes who come to mind already have jobs. Paul Chryst doesn’t want to leave Pittsburgh. Dave Doeren already took a job with North Carolina State. Other Badger assistants, like Chris Ash and Charlie Partridge, might be following Bielema to the SEC. Going any further back gets ugly: Darrell Bevell hasn’t coached a college team since 1999 and Brad Childress is currently the offensive mastermind behind the Brandon Weeden project.

Other big-name coaches who were floated in the Tennessee and Auburn coaching searches have already resigned for more money at their schools or found new jobs.

For instance, perennial “Is he available?” candidate Chris Peterson of Boise State has already been floated – as he is with every coaching search – and has taken his name out of consideration for the Wisconsin position.

Picking a new head coach isn’t easy. Of all people, Gopher fans realize that. Consider that it took a high profile school like Notre Dame five coaches and 16 years to find a suitable replacement for Lou Holtz. It took Alabama – ALABAMA! – a decade and five coaches before they landed on Nick Saban. Michigan threw millions of dollars at Rich Rodriguez, and then threw millions more at him to leave. Gopher fans watched that program struggle through Jim Wacker, tread water back to occasional respectability and then drown under the false braggadocio of a tight ends coach.

While Bielema will be hard-pressed to match in Arkansas what he accomplished in Wisconsin, Wisconsin will be just as hard-pressed in finding someone to match what Bielema accomplished in Madison.

Gophers nab running back Berkely Edwards, how does he fit into 2013's plans?

Fri, 30 Nov 2012 13:14:00 -0500

Photo credit: Joseph Tobianski / AnnArbor.com

Jerry Kill has landed his first running back for next year’s recruiting class, as Rivals’s Gopher Illustrated has reported that Michigan running back Berkely Edwards has committed to the maroon and gold. What can we expect from him?

Edwards, the younger brother of former Michigan Wolverine and NFL receiver Braylon, rates as a three-star prospect according to both Rivals and Scout. The experts from Rivals, ESPN and Scout have scouted Edwards to be on the high end of three stars; Edwards’s scout grade of 77 ranks on the high end of ESPN’s “good prospects” range.

For perspective, rare, amazing prospects rank 100-90, and 89-80 is for outstanding prospects. Issac Hayes, Jamel Harbison and Andre McDonald all ranked 80 last year, while KJ Maye received a 76.

The high school senior currently measures 5-foot-9, 190 pounds and reportedly received a scholarship offer from California, among several other non-automatic qualifier schools. Iowa had been rumored to be interested in him, but apparently decided that they didn’t want to seal the young man’s fate in crushing knee injuries, questionable drug-related arrests and the general wrath of the Angry Iowa Running Back Hating God. (Iowa reportedly recently pulled its offer.)

In talking on Twitter with GopherIllustrated’s Matt O’Connell and The Daily Gopher’s MV, Edwards’s speed should get him on the field during his freshman season, as should the fact that the Gophers aren’t exactly talent rich at the position.

Donnell Kirkwood wrapped up a productive 2012 campaign, one that admittedly overshot my meager expectations for him. But while Kirkwood’s 4.26 yards per carry and 848 yards were a pleasant surprise, the play of James Gillum was a complete letdown. After totaling 14 carries in the season opener against UNLV, Gillum only had a carry in three other games, and never toted the rock more than five times when he did.

True freshman Rodrick Williams, Jr, “Nugget,” was a nice surprise, too, but at 5-foot, 11-inches and 228 pounds, he’s meant to run into people more than run away from them.

Enter Edwards, the speed back that can hopefully add another weapon to the Gopher offense. After watching some of his 2012 game film, the hope is that he can replicate what Chad Spann did for Kill and Co. at Northern Illinois.

Kirkwood, Williams and Gillum are not to blame for the team’s offensive struggles, though. The offensive line again battled injuries last year and the passing game was awful. Nationally, the Gophers ranked 108th out of 124 teams in passing yards per game. On third down, the Gophers’ quarterbacks had the third-worst completion percentage.

When teams can manhandle your patchwork offensive line — filled with the second and third names on the depth chart – and can also all but ignore your passing game, there isn’t much to suggest that your running backs are going to have a huge amount of success. If Edwards is successful running the ball in 2013, a large reason will be an offensive line receiving large contributions from upperclassmen for the first time in two years. If injuries continue to press younger linemen into duty earlier than desired, we can expect more of the same struggles up front.

While Edwards certainly shouldn’t be expected to be a program changer, he certainly brings a level of speed that the Gophers backfield has lacked during the last two years. Rivals ranks him as an all-around back, one who can play on third down and catch some passes out of the backfield. An ability to catch passes hasn’t figured much into the Kill-Limegrover system for running backs though, at least dating back to 2008. The highest reception total in five years for a running back in the Kill-Limegrover offense was 11, by Kyle Skarb in 2009. In 2012, Donnell Kirkwood led running backs with seven catches; in most screen plays, KJ Maye was used instead. He caught 11 passes on the year.

But again, Edwards’s speed is something that the program simply hasn’t had in several years and with relatively little running back depth of value currently on the roster, we should expect Edwards to figure squarely into the Gophers’ plans when the team begins fall camp.

Non-Gambler's Big Ten Picks: Week 11 - Why a Minnesota-Illinois tickle fight is Jerry Kill's most important game

Tue, 13 Nov 2012 09:07:39 -0500

Photo credit: Marlin Levison, Star Tribune. Lines from VegasInsider.com, broadcast information is courtesy of AwfulAnnouncing.com. Home team is in ALL CAPS. Originally posted at FringeBowlTeamBlog.com

Minnesota (-3) over ILLINOIS // 2:30 p.m., BTN, Eric Collins, Derek Rackley, Jon Jansen.

In a Little Brown Jug game that was poorly played by both teams, only dismal offensive execution and staggeringly foolish coaching decisions on the part of the Gophers ensured that the Jug would remain a “traveling” college football trophy in name only.

This week, Coach Jerry Kill and his team do not have the luxury of low expectations, of fans shrugging off a loss with “well, they were supposed to lose anyway” apathy that comes with playing conference powerhouses like Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska.

Illinois is awful this year.

That ineptitude is good for the Gophers, but it also means that they can’t decide to get cute with fake field goals and punts that have been about as surprising to opponents as ringing someone’s doorbell on Halloween. The Gophers can’t get away with giving up 40-yard touchdowns on third down or failing to muster points from drives that start in opponent territory. Above all, Minnesota has a chance to wrap their hands upon bowl eligibility; and this Saturday, they are favored to do so.

* * * * *

On the second drive of the second quarter, the Michigan Wolverines found themselves looking at third down and long, 17 yards to be exact, as they sat near midfield. Their offense was sputtering without Denard Robinson, the Superman responsible for 75 percent of Michigan’s offense who was unavailable for the game due to an arm injury. Yes, Clark Kent indeed quit journalism. He did it years ago, grew dreads and moved to Ann Arbor.

With Robinson on the sidelines, Michigan was surprisingly struggling against the much-maligned Gopher run defense. Espousing a cliche “bend but don’t break” foundation, the defensive line had bottled up Michigan backup quarterback Devin Gardner on several plays, already tallying a sack, an interception and two Michigan punts so far on the day.

Of course, as things between Michigan and Minnesota swirl like snowflakes falling on stop and go 35W traffic, the game was about to turn. It couldn’t be that easy for the Gophers.

So Gardner sat in the shotgun and took the snap. The pocket crumbled around him and he pump faked to a receiver who was draped in maroon. Gardner ran to his right, but was flushed back near the hash marks by another freak athlete, defensive lineman Ra’Shede Hageman.

Gardner fled to the middle of the field, reached the large painted Gopher “M,” took two hard steps and flung a pass on the run that reminded me of something out of street football, a desperation toss that looked like the kind of thing that haunts offensive coordinators in their sleep, the kind of sure interception that breaks a team’s chances to own the battle of field position.

Of course, this was the exception that proves the rule, or the nightmare in this case.

Anyone watching at TCF Bank quickly drew their eyes to the end zone, where Michigan receiver Drew Dileo was standing by himself. The pass traveled fifty yards in three seconds, but it seemed to hang in the air for a minute, long enough to a few people around us to yell something close to the general thought of, “Jesus Christ who is guarding that guy?!”

Just as the Gopher machine had started chugging and creaking to life, it faltered, spraying out black smoke and backfiring like an old jalopy.

The tied score led to a three and out and a nearly six-minute Wolverine drive that seemingly stalled on the Minnesota four-yard line. Cornerback Martez Shabazz made what would have been a brilliant break-up, knocking the ball away from receiver Devin Funchess; however, a yellow flag on the play kept Michigan’s kicking team on the sideline as they plunged in for another touchdown to end the half. The scoring would continue in the second half, with Michigan’s offense pouring on 28 straight points compared to only three from Minnesota.

The Gophers opened the game’s scoring in the second quarter with a brilliant third-down pass connection between quarterback and rising maroon and gold apostle Phillip “Mankato Jesus” Nelson and tight end John Rabe.

But the succeeding drives would fail to end with the Rouser.

Down a touchdown in the third quarter, the Gophers tried a fake punt that I can only describe in a roundabout way. It led to me Google “failed surprise attacks,” but the best comparison came from a YouTube video of a kitten making an botched attempt at pouncing on another cat. While the young cat hunches behind a wall, the second cat just walks up behind the kitten and smacks it across the ass. The “Bay of Pigs,” it wasn’t. “Kitten Fails Surprise Attack,” it was.

The only people in the stadium who thought it was a fake was the Gopher coaching staff – it’s not a fake field goal if everyone is expecting you to fake it.

In our section at TCF, there wasn’t even many curse words. Instead a dozen people just bugged out their eyes and stuttered out noises that are impossible to 100 percent correctly spell, the kind of onomatopoeias that sound like, “Whaaa….?”

I like aggressive play calling, but not when it borders on the stupid. MV broke down the probabilities for these types of plays, charting when it makes sense to take the points versus when it is advantagous to keep your offense on the field.

I would like to bring forward another theory that is nowhere near as scientific, but can piggyback on MV’s work – the Video Game Test. The question is, “Would you make that play on your Dynasty season in NCAA ‘13 or Madden?” That is, would you fake a field goal on fourth and 16 on your opponents’ 19-yard line? No. You wouldn’t. And if you really didn’t want to kick, you would at least keep your offense on the field.

I realize that Peter Mortell played some quarterback in high school, but for the second time this season, Jerry Kill has entrusted the back-up punter/field goal holder with gaining more than 10 yards on a fourth down. Against Northwestern, he expected Mortell to run for 13 yards. Against Michigan, Kill expected him to pass for 16 yards. I have no idea what Mortell has shown in practice, but it has to be impressive enough that the coaches trust him enough in high-leverage situations. Of course, it hasn’t been impressive enough that the staff feels Mortell should be playing a different position other than holder.

But this fake field goal wasn’t the only head scratcher.

When the offense needed a yard or two on third and fourth down, the Gophers went into the shotgun, specifically into the three running back diamond formation. Deep in Michigan territory on second and long, the Gophers ran a sweep pass with KJ Maye that was again predictable, particularly since Maye is almost never spread-out wide.

If the Michigan game showed us anything, it’s that this coaching staff is just as capable of making bone-headed decisions as previous regimes, that Jerry Kill and Co. aren’t immune to their own silly and instantly criticizable in-game mistakes. Say the Honeymoon is over, but in a game when Michigan stumbled, Minnesota seemed only too willing to one-up them.

The Gophers can’t afford to do that against Illinois.

* * * * *

How bad is Illinois? The Gophers haven’t won a road game in the conference since 2010 – again against Illinois — and they are actually favored to win. The Gophers won’t be favored for the rest of the year.

Going into the season, I expected the Gophers to win two conference games – Northwestern and Illinois. As rough as parts of the season have seemed – the Iowa blowout, the ineptitude against Northwestern, the run defense against Big Ten teams – this should have been expected. But against the Illini, we expect the opposite. For once, the pressure is on Jerry Kill to deliver not because fans want to see a win, but because everyone expects a win.

Another win gives Kill a bowl game and a modest achievement to show that Minnesota is making progress, a nice-sized morsel to abate his critics. But a loss turns up the volume on last Saturday’s fake punt and botched offensive production, as everyone will start to look more critically at both the direction of the program and Kill’s overall performance, fair or not.

Wisconsin (-7.5) over INDIANA // 11 a.m., ESPN2, Beth Mowins, Joey Galloway, Niki Noto.

Indiana is averaging 33 points per game – third in the conference — and lost to Michigan State and Ohio State by a total of seven combined points. Defensively, they are last in the conference in terms of total yards, however.

Still, this is the game they lose to Wisconsin by two points while missing a field goal in the closing seconds and we get another “Quality win against a quality opponent” speech from Bret Bielema.

We are all Hoosier fans this Saturday.

MICHIGAN (-10) over Northwestern // 11 a.m., ESPN, ESPN 3D, Dave Pasch, Brian Griese, Jenn Brown 

Will Michigan move Devin Gardner back to receiver next year and hand the reins to Russell Bellomy? It’s worth noting that if Bellomy was playing last Saturday, Michigan might not have won.

IOWA (-5) over Purdue // 11 a.m., BTN, Josh Lewin, Chris Martin, J Leman .

Just to play around with the Sid Hartman Transitive Theory of Ranking Teams, Purdue will blow out Iowa.

Every week that Iowa falters makes me wonder, what the hell happened when they played the Gophers?

NEBRASKA (-8.5) over Penn State // 2:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2, Sean McDonough, Chris Spielman, Quint Kessenich.

At the beginning of the year, I picked Penn State to go 3-5 in conference. Obviously, that was off. It will be interesting to see what happens to the Nittany Lions in a year or two when the impact of the transfers and scholarship reductions are felt.

Non-Gambler's Big Ten Picks: Week 10 The Battle for the Jug another step in Nelson's maturation

Tue, 13 Nov 2012 09:06:00 -0500

Image courtesy of the University of Minnesota. Lines provided by VegasInsider.com. Broadcast information courtesy of AwfulAnnouncing.com. This was originally posted at FringeBowlTeamBlog.com.

Michigan (-12) over MINNESOTA // 11 a.m., BTN, Kevin Kugler, Chris Martin, Jon Jansen.

I would have loved to start this post recalling the last time the Gophers beat Michigan in Minnesota, but I don’t remember it at all. This is mostly because it was five years before my birth.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers haven’t beat Michigan at home since 1977.

The Gophers have come close, obviously, but we don’t need to rehash those ghosts here. Plus, I’ve already ruined my day before writing about them. To get a sense of how lopsided things have been, perform a Google image search for “Little Brown Jug Minnesota Gophers.” I would love nothing more than to see Minnesota stun the Wolverines and return the Little Brown Jug back to the 612 area code for this first time in three and a half decades. I would love to restart this once storied rivalry with a surprise turd in the punch bowl at Denard Robinson’s Big Ten farewell party.

We just aren’t there yet.

So far this week, a lot of attention has been given to an injured nerve in Robinson’s throwing arm, which he injured last week in the first half against Nebraska. As will happen with a player who is currently accounting for 75 percent of a team’s entire offense (!*), Michigan sputtered without him and lost to Nebraska.

* - Just a second. I need to repeat that again. Robinson has accounted for 2,265 yards of offense this year, or 75 percent of Michigan’s 3,025 yards of total offense. If anyone thinks that Michigan is just going to seamlessly transition to a new quarterback next year — who isn’t named Devin Gardner — who isn’t running a wide-open, quarterback run-heavy scheme, I’ve got a Gophers practice facility to sell you.

Those paying attention though should note that Robinson’s throwing arm won’t be much of an issue. He won’t need to throw the ball much to beat the Gophers. The Michigan defense should mirror Wisconsin’s strategy of keeping two safeties deep, while letting their front seven manhandle the Gophers’ young and beat up offensive line, while the offense chews up yards against the Gophers’ hapless run defense.

Purdue, for whatever reason, decided on a balanced against the Gophers to start the game. In the first quarter, the Boilermakers ran six rushing plays and seven pass plays. They gained 15 yards passing and 58 yards rushing, 40 yards coming on an Akeem Shavers run that set up the game’s first TD. They fell behind quickly and then decided on trying to throw against a stout Gopher pass defense.

Anyone who has watched this Gopher team for more than a half of football can realize that the run defense is atrocious, but when Minnesota has a lead, the pass rush and pass coverage is very solid.

I’ve already written about Robinson’s “turn out the lights, jump into bed before the room gets dark” speed. Mixed with the Gophers’ run defense – currently ranked 103rd in the nation, according to Football Outsiders’s S&P+ measure – we don’t need to spend too much more time exploring what happens when those two elements combine.

Offensively, the Gophers will face off against their toughest defense so far and likely the second-toughest in the conference behind Michigan State.

Against the Boilermakers, the Gophers found a weakness in film study, that the opposing cornerbacks were susceptible to pump fakes and sluggo routes. (A sluggo route starts out like a quick slant, but the receiver breaks deep, usually aided by a pump fake from the quarterback; slant and go combined equals “sluggo.”)

Finding such an easy flaw on tape will be much more difficult against Michigan, the toughest defense the Gophers have yet to face. On the table to the right, I listed the defensive rank of each of the Gophers’ opponents, according to Football Outsiders’s F/+ ratings. (New Hampshire isn’t listed because FCS teams aren’t ranked.) The disparity in defensive play shines though – the closest example would be the Wisconsin defense.

The upside is that this game shouldn’t turn into another 58-0 bloodbath. If anything, we should get to see firsthand how Philip Nelson deals with an off day, how he handles missed blocks up front, a swarming pass rush and receivers who are having trouble getting open out of their breaks.

Coach Jerry Kill will need to resist the temptation to shuffle quarterbacks when Nelson makes a freshman mistake – and he will. This is part of the ride when allowing a true freshman to learn on the job.

As a sidenote, Michigan blog “M Victors” compiled a brilliant 13-part series on the history of the “Little Brown Jug” that is completely worth your time.

OHIO STATE (-27.5) over Illinois // 2:30 p.m., ESPN, Beth Mowins, Joey Galloway, Lewis Johnson.

Before the season, I made predictions for every Big Ten conference game. I ended up with Illinois going 1-7, with a win against Indiana. They lost, at home, last week to the Hoosiers by two touchdowns. If Urban Meyer wants to score 80 points in this game, the Buckeyes will score 80 points.

I really hope Lewis Johnson interviews Illibuck during this blowout. Don’t let us down, Lewis.

MICHIGAN STATE (+1.5) over Nebraska // 2:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2, Sean McDonough, Chris Spielman, Quint Kessenich.

Michigan State has lost four games. Sparty has lost three of those games by six points combined. Just as the Spartans were a bit lucky during close games in 2010 and to a degree in 2011, they have been unlucky this year.

Michigan State’s offense has been wildly inconsistent, but the defense has been one of the best in the country. Football Outsiders* ranks Michigan State’s defense fourth in the nation. Nebraska’s rushing offense ranks fifth overall, but Michigan State’s rushing defense rates the best in the country. I wouldn’t sleep on Michigan State, especially at home.

* - As ranked in Football Outsiders’ all-inclusive F/+ rating.

Penn State (-3.5) over PURDUE // 2:30 p.m., ESPNU, Tom Hart, John Congemi, Allison Williams

I was going to pick Purdue, but then Michael Carter came and slapped the keyboard out of my hands. So, Penn State in a landslide.

I’m linking this here because it’s worth watching again. And again.

Iowa (-2) over INDIANA // 2:30 p.m., BTN, Eric Collins, Derek Rackley, J Leman.

I know Iowa has been awful in recent weeks. I know Indiana has been putting up points, albeit in losing efforts. But watching Iowa methodically destroy the Gophers in the first half earlier this year, along with the Hawkeyes’ win against Michigan State makes me believe that they can beat Indiana on the road.

Non-Gambler's Big Ten Picks: Week 9 - The Philip Nelson Era begins

Tue, 13 Nov 2012 09:04:00 -0500

Photo credit: Jeff Hanisch/US Presswire

Lines are from VegasInsider.com, broadcast information courtesy of AwfulAnnouncing.com. This was originally posted at FringeBowlTeamBlog.com.

Purdue (-3) over MINNESOTA // 2:30 p.m., BTN, Eric Collins, Derek Rackley, J Leman.

I wonder if there was a time last Saturday when Philip Nelson thought to himself, “Holy shit. I’m going to be the Gophers’ starting quarterback for the next four years.” I don’t mean in the way that all recruits probably think they will one day star at their respective schools, but in the intense, literal sense that he was already getting drilled to the turf while taking snaps for Minnesota against the Wisconsin Badgers in Camp Randall.

A 19-year-old who passed up the last five months of high school to enroll at college early was handed the keys to Jerry Kill’s offense, and to a smaller extent, entire program. In my freshman year of college, I was collecting noise violations in my college dorm like they were pull tabs. Nelson was trying to thread a football through two defenders in front of 60,000 hostile Wisconsin fans and trying to salvage what is left of a once somewhat promising season for the Golden Gophers.

Left with a senior run-first quarterback hobbled by a high ankle sprain and a dinged-up sophomore backup QB who was ineffective in two games that were thought to be winnable, head coach Jerry Kill had no other option than burn Nelson’s redshirt and turnover the program a few months earlier than expected. It wasn’t a “He Needs to Save the Program” moment, where Kill was trying to save himself from getting axed midseason, but just the best decision to win any games left on the schedule.

The reality is this: MarQueis Gray is too hurt to perform. Shortell isn’t a long-term starting quarterback, at least not at this point as a true sophomore. Nelson, however, is the long-term option at quarterback. Pulling a redshirt halfway through a season is never easy, but look at what has unfolded through injuries for the Gophers. This isn’t an ideal situation. Ideally, the Gophers would have beaten either Iowa or Northwestern and set themselves up for a possible bowl game later this year. Now, they need to upset Purdue and beat Illinois on the road.

Philip Nelson, true freshman or not, gives the Gophers the best chance to do that. It’s now the beginning of his era as a signal-caller, something even Gray conceded to the Pioneer Press after the Badger game.

“He’s the leader of this offense now,” Gray said. “He has got the keys to the car. So just being out there encouraging him is the best thing I can do. … He’s going to be a great quarterback for us.”

* * * *

Call it a bittersweet handoff.

While the future begins immediately with Nelson – or #PN9X as he has been referred to in Twitter hashtag – Gray’s collegiate future ends before it ever really took shape. When it comes to Gray, I will always wonder what could have been, what might have been. The signature recruit of Tim Brewster’s vaunted 2008 recruiting class, Gray’s expectations soared after a standout performance in the U.S. Army All-American Bowl, where he rushed for a TD and threw another. Gray officially committed to Minnesota during the high school all-star game, erasing the stink off of a 1-11 Gopher season.

With Brewster promising to run the spread offense with longtime spread disciple Mike Dunbar at offensive coordinator, it seemed like a perfect fit. The recruiting guru had his program-building quarterback.

But as everyone knows by now, those dreams were quickly derailed. The NCAA clearinghouse flagged Gray’s ACT score for improving too much from his previous try, forcing him to take it again. A year later, Gray enrolled again at Minnesota after proving that his ACT score was legit.

Even with the extra year, it was clear then-coach Tim Brewster had no idea what to do with Gray long-term. Lacking the conviction to either bench quarterback Adam Weber or outright move Gray to wide receiver, Brewster kept his most prized recruit in a state of football purgatory.

Rather than redshirt Gray, an impressive athlete but raw quarterback, Brewster played him immediately in small doses. Using such a talented athlete in a dual-role isn’t a bad thing, look at how Northwestern uses the super-versatile Kain Colter. Teams often don’t know where he is going to line up; more importantly, when he lines up at wideout, Colter is playing wideout. He isn’t a quarterback masquerading as a decoy. When he lines up at quarterback, he is expected to have access to the entire offense, not just glorified dive plays.

But that isn’t how Brewster and Co. used Gray.

He trotted out Gray in obvious wild-cat, single-wing type situations, where Gray would essentially stand back in the shotgun and then smash directly between the center and tackles. Or Brewster threw him in as a receiver as a decoy or to be used on obvious gadget plays.

I remember sitting in the stands in Kinnick Stadium when Gray entered the game as a receiver and moved toward us in motion.

“He’s going to run back toward the backfield in an end-around and then throw a bomb downfield,” I yelled.

The “surprise” play unfolded exactly as I said, only I forgot to include the interception on the end. If people like me – a rube in the stands taking pulls from a Crown Royal-filled flask — could diagnose these offensive wrinkles, surely Big Ten coaches could as well.

So went the first year of Gray’s Gopher career.

In his sophomore season, Brewster moved Gray to wide receiver, while mixing him in sparingly with the quarterbacks during practice. Gray showed immediate promise split outside, although the team sputtered and Brewster was soon fired midway through the campaign. Late in the season, interim-coach and pistol offense guru Jeff Horton installed more packages with Gray playing QB – his play was essentially in a late-season surprise victory against Iowa.

But by that point, Gray had spent his underclassman years shuffling around the field, learning different offenses each year under Tim Brewster’s ever-changing coordinators. You could argue that Brewster took a player who was raw when he came to campus and let him spoil.

Without the benefit of a redshirt year or even a year to really learn an offense, Gray stepped in to Jerry Kill’s system as a junior who hadn’t really played quarterback since his high school days and had never had the benefit of keeping the same offensive coordinator in consecutive years.

The dream was deferred, but it might as well be dead. The Gophers had wasted the development of arguably the biggest recruit in a decade who had come to town.

Last year, Gray played very well at times and OK at others, displaying running talent matched by few in the country, along with an inaccurate passing touch. This year, he started out at UNLV winging passes out of reach of any receivers and then a couple of games later went down with a high ankle sprain.

His senior year will end at wideout, as he struggles to deal with a painful injury and stay on the field during his last few weeks of collegiate football. He never led the Gophers to those program-changing victories, never had his own era. Instead, Gray served as a bridge between underclassmen quarterbacks pressed into action.

Through the incompentce of Brewster and the series of offensive coordinators that surrounded Gray’s first two years, he never blamed the coaches, but continued to come to practice and say the right things.

He’s already tutoring Nelson, conceding that a new era has begun.

“I just keep building (Nelson’s) confidence in the huddle, on the sidelines. [And] catching everything that comes my way,” Gray told the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller.

* * * * *

Philip Nelson is no longer just a quarterback waiting for his shot, he’s the de-facto leader of the offense and to a degree, the program. To take advantage of a situation that most wanted to avoid, Kill needs to continue to play and start Nelson, to ride through both the successes, like his first TD pass, and also his mistakes, like his first multi-interception game. Things will be ugly at times with Nelson, but patience is now the answer. Kill shouldn’t yank him in and out of the game, just as fans shouldn’t start with the “Fire Kill!” or “Bench Nelson!” bandwagon.

There won’t be an answer for every bad play that happens. It’s like training a puppy — sometimes they piss on the carpet. It’s like trying to figure out exactly why a baby is crying — sometimes babies cry.

While throwing a true freshman into Big Ten play halfway through the season isn’t ideal, the Gophers are not under ideal circumstances. Good teams are able to redshirt young talent, allowing players to fully develop before stepping into game action. The Gophers aren’t that team.

At this point in time, the Gophers don’t have the luxury of allowing Nelson to redshirt. He’ll have to learn on the job. At least this time around, the Gophers have a plan to develop their most important player, how to best give him a shot to succeed, even though that somewhat frustratingly comes at the expense of someone who never got much of one.

The Game: At the beginning of the year, I had the Gophers beating only Northwestern and Illinois in conference. A win against Purdue obviously keeps any bowl hopes alive, But recalling nightmares from last year, I think Purdue ends up winning by more than a touchdown.

Iowa (+5) over NORTHWESTERN // 11 a.m., ESPN2, Beth Mowins, Joey Galloway, Lewis Johnson.

I can’t look at this game without going into full-on Frank Constanza mode: “WE SHOULD HAVE BEATEN NORTHWESTERN. WE SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST COMPETED WITH IOWA. THAT’S TWO YEARS IN A ROW THAT THE GOPHERS HAVE LET NORTHWESTERN TAKE A WINNABLE GAME.”

Let’s just move on.

I think Iowa can be sneakily good if James Vandenberg and the receivers can work out their issues with Greg Davis’s offense.

Indiana (+2) over ILLINOIS // 11 a.m., BTN, Kevin Kugler, Chris Martin, Jon Jansen.

I hate 11 a.m. games. That time period negatively impacts student attendance for marginal programs above anything else. College students aren’t getting up at 11 a.m. for anything – we saw that last weekend when the Gophers played in Wisconsin. If consecutive Rose Bowls and a game against a hated rival can’t fill a student section, nothing will.

That said, this slap fight probably deserves to be at 11 a.m.; just like if you replaced one of these teams with the Gophs. But other that that? The Big Ten Network is simply making the rich programs richer, while pulling up the ladder before some of the weaker programs have had a chance to climb up.

Michigan State (+6) over WISCONSIN // 2:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2, Mike Patrick, Ed Cunningham, Jeannine Edwards

Joel Stave likes Train. He not only likes Train, he likes them enough to perform “Drops of Jupiter” at some Wisconsin banquet concert show thing. (I already am a repository of useless information, I’m not researching what the ”Buckinghams” are on the Madison campus.)

Everyone else might have spotted this back in May, but I apparently didn’t ~~have my Google Alert for “Wisconsin Quarterback Plays Whiny Soft Rock on Piano” set up yet~~ see it on the Badger-related Interwebs.

Based on that, Michigan State wins this game. If Michigan State’s season was a movie, they would check Andrew Maxwell’s eyesight. Of course, they would find out he needs glasses, the eye doctor would give him some Chris Sabo/Kareem-style goggles and the team would go through a montage-producing string of victories.

Ohio State (PK) at PENN STATE // 4:30 p.m., ESPN, Sean McDonough, Chris Spielman, Quint Kessenich.

One week after falling all over itself and somehow ending up with a victory against Purdue, Ohio State finds itself in a pick ‘em with a reenergized team that everyone left for dead at the beginning of the season.

I’m picking Ohio State, if only so we don’t have to eventually hear the Tom Rinaldi, soft focus, “Everyone with a voice said this Penn State team would fail this year. Too bad the guys on the field weren’t listening” story.

The Non-Gambler's Week 8 Big Ten Picks: How the Gophers can bring the Axe home

Tue, 13 Nov 2012 09:02:00 -0500

Home teams are listed in BOLD. Lines taken from VegasInsider.com and broadcast information courtesy of AwfulAnnouncing.com. This was originally posted at FringeBowlTeamBlog.com.

Minnesota, 4-2, 0-2 in Big Ten, (+17.5) over WISCONSIN, 5-2, 2-1 // 11 a.m., ESPNU, Tom Hart, John Congemi.

Last year, Nick Toon, Russell Wilson and the bulk of the Wisconsin Badgers paraded around TCF Bank Stadium with Paul Bunyan’s Axe, eventually running to the end zone where they pretended to chop down the goal post in front of the Pride of Minnesota.

Most of the fans had already exited out the stadium, choosing not to punish themselves further by watching the Wisconsin players celebrate. I stayed until the Badgers went into the locker room, I wish Jerry Kill would have kept this team on the field, too. I wish those players would have watched one of their rivals galavanting across the field, swinging around a trophy that the Gophers last held when the team’s current seniors were in seventh grade. (Eighth grade if they had a redshirt year.)

Last week, I sat on the couch with my newborn son and we watched his first Gopher football game. I should qualify that. At the time he was all of four days old and he really can’t see much of anything, so saying, “We sat down to watch the game” is painting the scene with a bit of Rockwell-ian brush, as if we had some moment that we will both remember for the rest of our lives. In reality, I held him while he slept, cried a bit and eventually pooped in his pants. He will hold no memory of the Gophers fumbling the opening kickoff, giving up 77 yards in the first quarter to Venric Mark and, well, collectively pooping their own pants on their way to loss against Northwestern. (In my son’s defense, at least he was wearing a diaper.)

In consecutive weeks, the Gophers have lost seemingly winnable games, all but flushing down the toilet any hopes of a fringe bowl game at the end of the year. As much as the Gopher defense couldn’t stop Venric Mark, the Wildcats only scored 21 points. As many times as the offense handed the ball back to Northwestern – here, you take it, we don’t really want to score anyway – the Gophers nearly had a chance to tie up the game with a two-point conversion in the fourth quarter, at least until an off-target pass merged with a receiver who fell down on a rain-soaked turf.

Jerry Kill was supposed to win these games by putting a team on the field that minimized mistakes and overachieved. In 18 games, that hasn’t happened yet. It’s still far too early to call his tenure a failure, but the Gophers will likely be double digit underdogs in every remaining game this year except one.*

This Saturday is not that game. The Maroon and Gold are 17.5-point underdogs.

In terms of being a rube, it’s the one game I’m willing to take for a loss every other week of the season. Ridiculous as that sounds — beat Wisconsin and lose the other seven conference games – if the Gophers bring the Axe home, I wouldn’t consider the season a failure. I hate Wisconsin football. I hate the way people sway to “On Wisconsin.” I hate that Badger fans have come to act like Junior Varsity Michigan Fans, acting like anything and everything Madison-related tastes like lollypops and rainbows, even though none of them know that from 1963 to 1992 – a span of 30 seasons – the Badgers averaged a seventh place finish in the Big Ten, that during that span they finished above fourth place once, a third-place finish in 1981. I hate House of Pain. I hate the smugness of Bret Bielema. I hate that earlier this year, when Northwestern lost its first game, a Badger fan on Facebook chided them for “being about as real as the Gophers,” completely ignoring that Bucky was ranked No. 12 to open the season before fluttering out of the rankings like a poorly thrown Danny O’Brien deep ball. Above all else, Iowa fans at least love college football. Most Badger fans are just waiting until the Packers kick-off on Sunday.

* - In MV’s “Models and Bottles” this week, he wrote that the Gophers could be favored against Purdue and Illinois. I’d be surprised if Purdue still wasn’t a three point favorite or so against the Gophers, but if MV’s models and research suggest that the Gophs could be favored against the Boilermakers, it’s definitely worth noting. He isn’t just taking numbers out of the sky.

My delusional rube side still believes in an upset this Saturday. My delusional rube side has been watching Herb Brooks videos on YouTube all week. My delusional rube side is hoping that the seniors on this team are so tired of losing to Wisconsin that they come together and play out of their minds. The delusional rube wants to see that fucking Axe back in Dinkytown.

But the rational side of me realizes how this ends.

The offense has huge problems. Both quarterbacks have been throwing passes off-target. When the ball has been on-target, receivers have been dropping the ball. The offensive line has suffered some injuries. When Gray isn’t playing quarterback, the running game has essentially vanished. The offense ranks 97th in all of college football, according to FootballOutsiders’ F/+ rating. For context of the Badgers’ opponents so far, UTEP; Illinois and Purdue have weaker offenses. All three of those games were decisive Badger wins.

Defensively, the Gophers still rank 27th in all of college football, according to Football Outsiders’ S&P+ ratings. (Note: I’m using S&P+ hereafter rather than the combined F/+ because that metric separates run and pass defense rankings.) The Gophers’ pass defense ranks legit, but as we’ve seen the last two weeks, that might not matter. The run defense is 71st.

I wanted to see if there was a strong correlation between the Badgers rushing attack and the team’s overall success, so I made a small table showing the defensive rankings of all of the Badgers’ opponents so far, along with rankings against the run, game score and yards per carry. FootballOutsiders doesn’t rank FBS teams, so Northern Iowa isn’t listed; the Badgers rushed for 3.57 yards per carry that game. I used rushing because Wisconsin is primarily a rushing team and the Gophers run defense has been atrocious. Also, the Badgers’ passing offense doesn’t hold this clear of a relationship to their overall success, although you could easily plot data points that conclude “When Danny O’Brien enters the game, a dumpster fire is about to ignite.”

In losses, the Badgers rushed on average for about two yards per carry. In victories, that number climbed to more than five yards per carry. Since the Utah State game was a chip shot field goal away from a win, I created an average loss column that also included that game.

We have a somewhat small sample size in only a handful of games, but the results are clear. If the Gophers have any chance in upsetting the Badgers, the linebackers need to shed blocks and the defensive line needs to create havoc at the line of scrimmage. Are the Gophers equipped to do that? I would be hard pressed to suggest that in week eight, seniors Mike Rallis and Keanon Cooper are going to suddenly transform like Voltron into run-stopping machines.

How does the Badgers offense stack up to other teams the Gophers have played?

Wisconsin’s offense ranks 55th overall. In terms of context, Iowa now ranks 57th, according to the metrics of FootballOutsiders, while Northwestern’s offense ranks 49th overall and Syracuse ranks 41st. (It’s worth noting that the Orange rank 69th in rushing offense, so the Gopher defense matched up with them perfectly.) Overall, Minnesota’s opponents are gaining 4.5 yards per carry. But in the past two games, Mark Weisman and Venric Mark might as well have been Shonn Greene and Darnell Autry. Iowa and Northwestern gained 7.28 yards and 6.12 yards per carry, respectively, against the Gophs.

If the Gophers can stop Montee Ball from picking up six yards every time he touches the ball and force Joel Stave into passing downs, they have a chance to compete. I want to see the Gophers storm the sideline and grab Paul Bunyan’s Axe again, but even the rube in me is having a hard time seeing that happen.

Pick: An upset is hard to predict, considering how awful the run defense has been and how inept the offense has been. The best I can honestly predict is a backdoor cover. Somewhere, Tim Brewster is telling his Mississippi State players that it’s best to score last.

Silver lining: This game doesn’t have a sideline reporter. Great success!

OHIO STATE, 7-0, 3-0, (-18.5) over Purdue, 3-3, 0-2 // Noon, ABC/ESPN2, Beth Mowins, Joey Galloway, Lewis Johnson

As MV said last Saturday on Twitter, “I’m so glad we never have to face Braxton Miller.”

I can’t agree enough, even though it still seems so odd to say that in four years the Gophers will never play one of the teams in its own conference. Conference divisions are stupid.

Sidenote: The divisions allow everyone to forget about the Governor’s Victory Bell, possibly the most unneeded trophy game in all of college football, so they aren’t all bad. Also, I’m really excited to see Lewis Johnson interview The Horseshoe. Yes, I’m talking about the brick and mortar Ohio Stadium itself. Never forget.

Michigan State, 4-3, 1-2, (+10) over MICHIGAN, 4-2, 2-0 // 2:30 p.m., BTN, Matt Devlin, Glen Mason, J Leman.

If Andrew Maxwell played for the Gophers, people would love MarQueis Gray’s passing accuracy.

Nebraska, 4-2, 1-1, (-6) over NORTHWESTERN, 6-1, 2-1 // 2:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2; Bob Wischusen, Danny Kanell, Maria Taylor.

If Venric Mark ran all over the Gophers, what are Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead going to do them later this year? I’ll be over here throwing up in my trash bucket.

At the end of the season, Nebraska is going to win the Big Ten and everyone is going to think, “Why haven’t they gotten more national publicity? Didn’t they only lose to Ohio State?” Then everyone will remember that the Cornhuskers lost to UCLA. The ghost of Rick Neuheisel will haunt.

Indiana, 2-4, 0-3, (+3) over Navy, 3-3 // 2:30 p.m., CBS College Sports, Grant Boone, Todd Christensen, Sheehan Stanwick Burch.

I’m picking the Hoosiers simply because Navy dropped us from future schedules and rejection hurts, you guys.

Everyone has been doing their best Skip Bayless about the Gophers future non-conference opponents, but the reality is this: The Gophers are near the bottom of the Big Ten right now. It makes no sense to schedule better teams from automatic qualifying conferences. One could even argue that at this juncture in college football, it almost never makes sense for power conference teams to schedule other power conference teams.

Yes, that outright blows for the fans. It’s a lot easier to get excited to watch California or USC than it is New Mexico State. But let’s not forget, the Gophers lost even to New Mexico State. Should Indiana and Illinois be scheduling North Carolina? No. Neither should the Gophers. Like it or not, that is Minnesota’s peer group right now.

IOWA, 4-2, 2-0, (-2.5) over Penn State, 4-2, 2-0 // 7 p.m., BTN, Eric Collins, Derek Rackley, Jon Jansen

Three weeks ago, Iowa fans were combing through Kirk Ferentz’s contract, trying to see how the University could possibly fire him. Now, he’s on the verge of going three and zero in the conference.

After this week, either Penn State or Iowa will be undefeated in the Big Ten. Might as get it over with and bow to our Ohio University and Iowa State overlords.

The Non-Gambler's Week 5 Big Ten Picks: Get the goalposts from Iowa City

Tue, 13 Nov 2012 09:01:00 -0500

Ed. note: There are many people who know about gambling. They aren’t me. That’s why this is “The Non-Gambler’s Big Ten Picks.” It’s not a clever name; this is not a gambling column. This column will preview the week’s Big Ten games, along with a few notes about the week in general from time to time. This was originally posted at FringeBowlTeamBlog.com. - EM

Minnesota (+7) over IOWA, 11 a.m., ESPN2, Announcing team: Beth Mowins, Joey Galloway, Lewis Johnson

“What can I say about Iowa’s offensive gameplan that has not already been said about Afghanistan? It looks bombed out and depleted,” - Silky Johnson, Hater of the Year, little known Minnesota Golden Gopher football season ticket holder of 25 years.

Two years ago, I stood up from my stool at the Happy Gnome and proclaimed the Gophers were going to upset Iowa. For once, I was right. That Saturday I got to run around on the field at TCF Bank Stadium like a rube with my Dad. Last year, I glumly figured Floyd of Rosedale was headed south down 35W again. This time, I was wrong. (Kind of a life theme, although usually I’m not quite so giddy about it.) I stood outside a winery in Oregon listening to the game on iHeartRadio, fist-pumping and generally scaring anyone who was driving into the parking lot.

The Gophers were heavy underdogs in both games; there wasn’t much to puff your chest about leading up to both games. Last year, the Gophers had already lost two awful non-conference games and had been outscored 144-31 in the three-game span preceding the Iowa game. Once again, I expected the trophy cases to be empty for at least another 12 months.

That has all changed going into this Saturday. It’s actually a rivalry again.

A year ago, the Gophers grabbed a coach from the MAC to restore a program that had been napalmed by a blowhard tight ends coach. The Hawkeyes, meanwhile, chugged along with essentially the same brain trust that had been in place for more than a decade. This offseason though, both of Iowa’s coordinators left, leaving Iowa with new coordinators for the first time since 1999, when Ferentz became head coach.

The play-calling of former Iowa offensive coordinator Ken O’Keefe was long criticized as being too limited and formulaic. But when he left town, apparently so did the success of Iowa’s pro-style, conservative offense. Likewise, the Angry Iowa Running Back Hating God continued to wreak havoc and suddenly the Hawkeyes were floundering.

A light non-conference schedule proved harrowing, leaving the Hawkeyes with two losses and almost a third. The Iowa Hawkeyes were very nearly the third-best football team in Iowa. The offense couldn’t score points, a walk-on fullback became the feature runner, and a senior quarterback who was supposed to be the class of the conference only had one passing touchdown through four games.

These things were not supposed to happen.

Iowa fans were not supposed to be bemoaning Kirk Ferentz’s salary and eventually, his ridiculous buyout of more than $21 million. First, it was surprising to hear Iowa’s throngs of fans talk about firing Ferentz. Then, it was “Is that a unicorn walking across water?” eye-opening to read that Iowa essentially couldn’t fire Ferentz, which in turn made some of their fans even more upset.

The Gophers, with coaching stability for the first time in a handful of years, have shown a heavily improved pass defense and pass rush that has propelled them to a 4-0 record. The offense has been heavily conservative, but in turn, has at least minimized mistakes. I’m really trying not to make a lame “Face/Off” changing identities joke here.

One of the bloggers over at the brilliant Black Heart Gold Pants – PlannedSickDays, for those who also read the site — tweeted earlier this week, “I’ve never seen this many giddy Gopher fans.”

Giddy is exactly the right word. The Gophers didn’t get run off of the field out a team with “Dakota” in the name this year. They didn’t cough up the ball in overtime against UNLV. The Gophers simply beat the teams they were supposed to beat. They have set themselves up to go bowling, while the rest of the Big Ten is engulfed in flames around them.

A lot has been made of the Gophers being undefeated so far, but we know it obviously won’t last much longer into the season. But there’s good reason to believe that the Gophers’ winning streak can continue this Saturday in Iowa City. That wasn’t the case the last couple of years.

The Game: It will be telling to see if the Gopher defense can handle running back Mark Weisman. So far, the linebackers have been underwhelming in run coverage. While the defensive line rotation has been great in pass rush, they have yet to be tested by a Big Ten offensive line. Iowa’s offensive line gave up six sacks to Northern Illinois to open the season, but hasn’t allowed Vandenberg to be sacked in the three following games. Hopefully the defense can stop Weisman from grabbing chunks of yards and force Iowa into passing situations. I feel confident with this defensive line going after Vanderberg with the way the Gophers defensive backfield has been playing.

The Iowa defense has 26 tackles for loss, second most in the Big Ten. The Gophers offensive line, battling some injuries, will be tested by Iowa’s front seven. Without MarQueis Gray to elude tacklers in the pocket, the Gophers are going to have to be creative in finding a way to keep Iowa defensive end Joe Gaglione from dumping Max Shortell repeatedly into the turf at Kinnick Stadium.

Pick: I see it as a pick ‘em game. The rube in me wants to see Floyd stay in Dinkytown for a third-straight year though and I think Iowa’s offense is going to continue to have some problems with Greg Davis’s scheme. Call it 20-17, Gophers.

Penn State (+1) over ILLINOIS, 11 a.m., ESPN2, Announcing team: Dave Pasch, Brian Griese, Jenn Brown

Remember earlier this spring when Illinois sent eight coaches to a Denny’s* in State College, essentially setting up a mobile recruiting base for any Nittany Lions players who could be convinced into transferring toChampaign? (If not, check the link above.)

Here’s guessing Bill O’Brien still remembers.

* - Seriously, a Denny’s? I’ve never been to State College and going by everyone’s reports of the town, I’m not really in a rush to change that. But after doing some light research – I put “State College, PA” into Yelp, advanced I know – I found an Indian restaurant, dozens of locally owned bar and grill spots, a freaking Olive Garden, even a Chik-Fil-A.

Illini coach Tim Beckman picked Denny’s. Really? Was he trying to recruit the type of player who likes unremarkably bland breakfast food? Was he going after the rare high school talent who also likes early bird specials aimed toward senior citizens? I will completely judge Tim Beckman’s coaching reign at Illinois by the fact that he thought Denny’s was the best place to set up his mobile recruiting operations.

Also, I’m completely jealous of State College because they have an Indian food restaurant. My very small town does not have such a delicacy. If you live in a town with an Indian food restaurant, go enjoy it this weekend for me. Get some garlic naan, some chicken tikka masala, some butter chicken, too. Get it all.

It is worth noting that Beckman brought eight coaches to town and they were able to convince one guy, redshirt freshman offensive lineman Ryan Nowicki, to sign. (Nowicki was a three-star recruit out of Arizona and has yet to appear in any games this year for the Fighting Illini, although most schools – well, other than the 2011 Gophers — aren’t going to have a lot of underclassmen holding down the tackle and guard spots. Nowicki is massive and could become a strong lineman for the Illini in the future. Or he could be someone that Michael Amefula blows by like a turnstile a couple times a year.)

To rehash the events, Beckman made a move that certainly was going to be controversial in openly and aggressively recruiting Penn State players. He did so in a way that was unmistakable and then didn’t necessarily own up to it. The eight coaches didn’t drive through State College, stop at the Denny’s and then try to talk up a bunch of players who were coincidentally also inside a shitty breakfast chain at that exact moment. Still, out of 10 players who transferred from Penn State and five recruits who de-committed, only one player decided to attend Illinois. If Nowicki was going to come to Illinois anyway, Beckman didn’t need to send the armada of coaches. Consider that USC pulled in running back Silas Redd and did so first with a phone call to Penn State to announce their interest. Redd visited the LA campus later and eventually transferred.

Lane Kiffin made a ~~Lane Kiffin~~ jerk move by going after Redd as hard as he and USC did, but they also didn’t bring the entire coaching staff to town in trying to pilfer the Nittany Lions’s roster. Beckman did. Whether or not the two coaches talked in Chicago during the Big Ten’s Media Days is irrelevant; I fully expect O’Brien to try to get his team toward a “Why did we go for two after that touchdown? Because we couldn’t go for three” moment this Saturday.

Illinois got pounded last week by Louisiana Tech, and by a margin worse than Louisiana Tech Bulldogs beat Rice. That makes the possibility of a “We couldn’t go for three” moment even more likely for Penn State, even on the road.

NORTHWESTERN (-11) over Indiana, 11 a.m., BTN, Announcing team: Kevin Kugler, Chris Martin

Pat Fitzgerald thinks Indiana has the most rich football tradition in the conference, if not the entire country.

In serious “This is Indiana” news, the Hoosiers’ “Marching Hundred” band was informed that the football coaching staff doesn’t want the band to play “The First Down March” when the team is on offense. (Hat tip to Indiana radio host Jake Query, who posted the entire press release on Twitter.)

The coaching staff was concerned that the team can’t hear the quarterback making checks and audibles at the line of scrimmage each play. Instead, Indiana will play “The March” after every touchdown.

*Insert joke here.* /rimshot

This reminds me when of a few years ago. I was at a Gophers game with some friends and we were telling them that every time the Gophers get a first down, you drink. One friend contested first downs gained by penalty. As part of the litigation of “Beggars v. Choosers,” I said that any and every first down counted.

The lesson, Indiana, is that when you’re a bottom feeder, don’t push your luck. Just be happy the band isn’t already over at Assembly Hall.

PURDUE (-17) over Marshall, 11 a.m., BTN, Announcing team: Eric Collins, Derek Rackley, TBA

I’m picking Purdue to win here, but I think Marshall will cover the 17 points. Purdue is going to end up playing for a conference title this year, aren’t they? Remember when everyone acted like it was a fictional football program that didn’t even exist?

Ohio State (+2.5) over MICHIGAN STATE, 2:30 p.m., ABC, Announcing team: Brent Musburger, Kirk Herbstreit, Heather Cox

Next question.

I fail to see how looking like a crybaby during a press conference “motivates your team” or “shows that you mean business.” You look like a jackass. Maybe Mark Dantonio was upset with his team and didn’t mean to look as though he was upset with the reporters. I have no idea. But he looked silly.

As far as the game, I’m interested to see if Michigan State can finally have some consistency in its passing game, as well as if the Spartans’ defense will give Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller fits again. Last year, the Spartans dumped Miller nine times on the way to a victory. Michigan State’s pass defense should also show how far Miller is from becoming an upper echelon quarterback in the conference.

Meanwhile, the Buckeyes defense has also been underwhelming as the offense has been inconsistent as well. Still, they are the best team in the conference.

NEBRASKA (-11.5) over Wisconsin, 7 p.m., ABC, Announcing team: Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, Holly Rowe

I’m fairly confident that the Minnesota fans who whine about MarQueis Gray have never watched Taylor Martinez throw a football. If you thought Tim Tebow had a long and awkward throwing motion, watch Martinez.

First, Martinez extends his non-throwing arm completely straight, as if it has been paralyzed with rigor mortis. (Picture a pen in his hand and you’ve got Bob Dole trying to toss a football.) If it’s a deep pass, Martinez dips his back shoulder and right side of his body extremely low, as if he has to literally propel the other side of his body forward.

Then, Martinez uncorks the right side of his body. Instead of a fluid weight transfer, the motion is as if he is dragging his entire left side as he throws. His elbow often starts in front of his arm, calling to mind someone playing darts under the influence of too much Natural Light. His legs seem to provide no force or power on the throw.

It is the throwing motion of Uncle Rico.

As others have said, it’s better suited for throwing a javelin than a football. He might be throwing with his off-hand in an elaborate practical joke on head coach and likely future heart attack *sufferer Bo Pelini. If you’re asking Taylor Martinez to pass the ball thirty times a game, you’re obviously doing it wrong. His job is to hand off, and fake hand off, to Rex Burkhead.

Taylor Martinez may look like a middle schooler trying to throw a NFL size football for the first time when he is passing, but he looks every bit the athlete he is when he tucks the ball and takes off.

* - We do NOT want to see Mr. Pelini suffer a heart attack. We are just saying that with his on-field anger and temperament, thinking about it is something that makes us cringe.

That said, Taylor Martinez should be the quarterback who can beat this Badgers this week.

Wisconsin football has been a dumpster fire so far in 2012, struggling with Northern Iowa, losing to Oregon State and needing the Utah State kicker to miss a chip shot in order to escape with a 16-4 victory. Last week’s game against UTEP wasn’t very close, but the Badgers’ issues certainly didn’t seem to be fixed. The offensive line hasn’t been opening holes, Montee Ball has been pedestrian and Danny O’Brien’s performance has called to mind the Minnesota Vikings’ signing of Donovan McNabb more than it has the Badgers’ acquisition of Russell Wilson last year.

Meanwhile, in rolling over three cupcakes, Nebraska looked like the class of the Big Ten. Negating any of that hype though is that they also lost to UCLA, which makes them look like a TEAM THAT LOST TO UCLA.

Transitioning to other things that make us scowl our faces like someone just crop dusted the entire office, here is a reminder of the jerseys that these teams will wear:

This game is brought to you by the letters “W,” and “N,” as well as “F,” “U,” “G,” “L,” and “Y.” /hackjoke

The most pointless thing about these jerseys might be the gloves. I think putting the logo on the gloves typically looks awesome – both gloves fit together to make a detailed team logo. These gloves do the exact opposite. They have a “W” and an “N” on each hand, so the players put them together to show either “NN” or “WW.”

Sigh. Great job, Adidas.

BYE: Michigan

Notre Dame has decided to drop Michigan from its upcoming football schedule, according to news released earlier this week from the Associated Press and Yahoo’s Dr. Saturday.

The report states that the Irish have decided not to play Michigan in 2015 through 2017 and the schools had already agreed to take a hiatus in both 2018 and 2019. That essentially kills the rivalry from 2015 through 2019. Also, with Notre Dame aligning with the ACC for at least five games each year starting possibly in 2014, it seems that a regular Michigan-Notre Dame contest won’t be happening.

Some people will say this rivalry dying off due to conference realignment is like the end ofTexas-Texas A&M, Kansas-Missouri and Oklahoma-Nebraska. But it’s not.

Before any Michigan Men* bang the drum for the loss of such a legendary college football tradition, let’s be honest with ourselves. These teams don’t have that great of a rivalry to begin with. Yes, the first game was played in 1887, but since, Michigan and Notre Dame have squared off a total of 40 times. From 1910 to 1977, they played just twice. There isn’t a trophy, there isn’t even a name for the game. It’s just called “The Michigan-Notre Dame rivalry.” That’s it. Notre Dame’s biggest rivals are USC, Navy and Michigan State. They “started” a rivalry with Stanford in 1988 and even that game has a trophy.

Just because something is old, doesn’t mean it is historic. The Michigan-Notre Dame series isn’t historic. It’s just old. It’s about the most Michigan and Notre Dame thing ever.

* - I hate few things more than the “Brady Hoke hates Ohio State so much he doesn’t wear red!” story. Bo Schembechler is the messiah of Michigan. Where did he get his start in coaching? Ohio State. Where did he receive his master’s degree? Ohio State. Who was a coaching mentor and lifelong friend? Woody Hayes. It’s one thing to have a heated rivalry. It’s another thing to be childish. If Schembechler could work at Ohio State, Hoke can relax about wearing a red shirt years ago. It doesn’t matter.

Michigan doesn’t need Notre Dame, the Wolverines already have well-publicized rivalries with Michigan State and Ohio State. If they continue to add a spotlight game like Alabama in the non-conference schedule, who needs Notre Dame? Yes, the Irish have that exclusive NBC TV deal, but if NBC had a chance to get involved with the SEC, they would have. The only reason NBC hasn’t tried to leave that deal is that they otherwise can’t get into big-time college football broadcasting.

With so many BCS automatic qualifier schools scheduling the Irish, NBC can market their schedule as Michigan, USC, Michigan State and Stanford games. If the Irish wants to spurn the Big Ten for the ACC, that’s fine, but the Big Ten should stop offering sweetheart scheduling for the Irish, which just enables Notre Dame to keep its farcical, “holier than thou” independent status.

This last bit is a personal note. Thank you to everyone who has picked up a shirt from Empty Bandwagon. When I designed the shirts, I had no idea if even one person would think they were worth buying. I just wanted a cool shirt to wear to a tailgate that showed I was a Gopher fan. It was great to find out that a few other people did, too. Thanks a lot to everyone who has supported Empty Bandwagon in any way, from buying a shirt or retweeting a photo on Twitter or even just responding to a thread on GopherHole. Thanks again.

Gopher football 15 for 2012: No. 1 - If someone says MarQueis Gray should be benched, punch them in the mouth

Mon, 13 Aug 2012 12:41:22 -0400

1. MarQueis Gray | QB | Senior | 6'4” 245 lbs.
Passing: CMP    YDS    YPA   TD  INT
         50.7   1,495  7.02  8   8
Rushing: ATT    YDS    AVG   TD
         199    966    4.9   6
Photo credit: Chris Polydoroff/Pioneer Press

If the Golden Gophers reach a bowl this year, it will be because MarQueis Gray lead them to one. Plain and simple, he’s the centerpiece of the offense, the team’s most talented player and starts at the most important position in all of football. Likewise, if he gets hurt, the reigns are thrown to sophomore Max Shortell, who still needs time to develop into a Division I starting quarterback. Ranking Gray at No. 1 should be a surprise to no one. We don’t advocate violence, but we surely don’t endorse abject stupidity: If someone says the Gophers should move Gray to wide receiver or just bench him outright, go punch them in the face. Here’s why.

There’s no doubt that Gray needs to improve his accuracy – likewise, his receivers will have to make the most of their chances – but once Gray decides to tuck the ball and run, there aren’t many other quarterbacks who can match his mix of speed and power. His 174 rushing yards against Illinois set the school’s single game rushing record for quarterbacks and, even with missing a game, his 966 rushing yards last year set the team’s single-season record for quarterbacks, as well.

Gray rushed for the third-most yards among quarterbacks at the FBS-level last year, although Jerry Kill and Co. would like for the team’s running backs to contribute more to the running game in 2012. Gray was forced into often fleeing the pocket in 2011 due to little protection from a young offensive line that was also battered by injuries. Those absences up front caused several untested and undersized underclassmen into playing time, negatively impacting the running game, leaving Gray as the team’s only real rushing threat. As I wrote in James Gillum’s write-up, the rushing game needs to take a step forward, which in turn should help Gray’s passing and allow him to pick his spots in rushing the ball. Last year’s “scrambling for your life” approach wasn’t exactly by design. Although Denard Robinson and Gray are very different types of mobile quarterbacks, a more ideal situation would be like at Michigan in 2011, where running back Fitzgerald Toussaint complimented Robinson.

Football is a team sport and no one player can be completely responsible for the result of an entire game, but the fact of the matter is that when Gray played well, the team played well and when Gray left the game, the Gophers ended up playing poorly on offense. Without breaking things down to a play-by-play basis and citing somewhat generalities, the one game Gray completely missed ended horribly, a 58-0 drubbing at the hands of Michigan. On the flip side, when Gray played well, the Gophers beat Iowa and Illinois. (Somehow, the Hawkeyes beat the Wolverines. Conventional wisdom and the Sid Hartman Transitive Property of Sports suggested that any team the Gophers beat would have lost to Michigan by an amount somewhere between 50 and 3,000 points.)

Gray also needs to have his hands all over 2012’s offensive game plan because his backups are untested. Max Shortell moved the ball well at first in the season opener against USC, but as the season went on, he was just as inconsistent throwing the ball as Gray and he wasn’t nearly the running threat. When the coach is brand new you can’t necessarily call for his head without sounding completely ridiculous, so the lazy fans’ onus falls onto to the QB when things are going right. As a true freshman, Shortell ended up compiling a passer efficiency rating and completion percentage that were both worse than Gray’s numbers. Kill likes to switch up his quarterbacks at times and Shortell has the tools to be a decent quarterback eventually, but at this point, he should be no more than a solid backup who only sees the field due to injury.

In 2011, the Gophers were a football team with many issues and several major issues. Gray’s passing accuracy was an issue, but major issues were things like defensive back play, the performance of the offensive line and little help from the running game. Gray has the tools and talent to be the most dynamic quarterback the Gophers have had in at least 20 years.

He will need to be if the maroon and gold hope to reach a bowl in 2012.

Gopher football 15 for 2012: No. 2 - Who is James Gillum?

Fri, 10 Aug 2012 08:40:07 -0400

2. James Gillum| RB | Junior | 5'11” 204 lbs.
Junior College Transfer
Photo credit: University of Minnesota Athletic Department

The Golden Gophers return four players who scored a rushing touchdown last year. One is the starting quarterback, one is a walk-on kicker who scored on a trick play and one is now a linebacker. The last player, the lone running back of the four, totaled 229 yards on the season.

So, uh, fire up that rouser!

To say the team lacks depth at running back is an understatement. The team returns sophomores Donnell Kirkwood, David Cobb and Devon Wright, but all three had trouble either staying healthy or breaking through the depth chart last year. So far, those guys have been just as unlucky this spring and summer: Cobb injured his knee in spring practice and Kirkwood is returning from a hamstring injury, although both seem healthy again. For now. Still, in Jerry Kill and Matt Limegrover’s run-heavy offense, those kind of reviews don’t inspire much confidence.

In the three years Kill spent at Northern Illinois University, the offense ran the ball about 64 percent of the time. Last year, the Gophers ran the ball 63 percent of the time, remarkable still, considering they were often behind as soon as their opponents’ first drive was completed. With the uncertainty surrounding the position, junior college transfer James Gillum immediately steps into a starting spot and lead running back role for the Gophers.

Gillum comes to the program after spending two years Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College, where in 2011 he was named a preseason junior college All-American. In high school, his teams mainly ran basic wing T type stuff, but he learned the spread and blitz pickup in college, according to The Times-Picayune in New Orleans. That experience should allow him to step in immediately in regard to blocking schemes and blitz pickup.

Looking at the Kill and Co. offensive scheme, we can predict that MarQueis Gray will again tally a lot of rushing attempts. As far as the running back position, the coaching staff would prefer to have a smaller scatback split carries with a bruising short-yardage guy, but as things currently reside, it’s unknown if the team can count on the running backs outside of Gillum. There are two newcomers who have promise; Rodrick Williams, Jr. looks like a beast, while fellow incoming freshman K.J. Maye brings a level of agility that none of the other running backs possess, but it’s unclear how much the pair will play as true freshmen or if they will redshirt.

As Limegrover told 1500ESPN’s Darren Wolfson in 2011, they would prefer to have a third-down back and divide the workload. But the depth chart this year might not allow them to do so, especially if they decide to redshirt Maye. As MV showed in his list of junior college running backs that Kill has previously recruited, this staff has a talent for plucking junior college kids from the ranks. This staff expects Gillum to play.

Watching Gillum’s tape, ~~he takes every single carry to the house for a touchdown~~ he doesn’t have blazing speed and is obviously not a bruiser, but Gophers coaches have continually pointed to his shiftiness and his ability to make tacklers miss. The junior will play early and will be looked upon to play often. Limegrover told BTN’s Tom Dienhart this summer that the Gophers could give the ball to Gillum 22 to 25 times a game.

“He’s durable. He’s tough,” Limegrover told Dienhart. “He has a knack for hitting the hole. He’s our kind of guy. There also are some young kids in the mix.”

As Limegrover said, Gillum is the main guy, the other running backs are in the mix. The starting job is Gillum’s to take.

Not so fun stat: The Gophers’ last 1,000-yard rusher came in 2006, as Amir Pinnix rushed for 1,272 yards. Before that, the Gophers had at least one 1,000-yard rusher each year going back to 1999. By the end of 2012 we could be singing the praises of Kirkwood or Cobb, but their inability to contribute last year – granted, it wasn’t all their fault – underscores how vital Gillum is to the Gophers offense.

Expect Gillum to be a workhorse back, given every chance to carry the ball 20 times a game. He will have to if the Gophers expect to succeed offensively in 2012.

Gopher football 15 for 2012: No. 3 - Welcome to 'Stoudermire Island' (The Return)

Thu, 09 Aug 2012 08:30:54 -0400

3. Troy Stoudermire | CB | Senior | 5'10” 200 lbs.
G  TK   Solo  TFL INT  PD  FF
4  24   20    3   2    3   0 
Photo credit: Marisa Wojcik / Minnesota Daily

Troy Stoudermire walks into 2012 as the leader of the Gophers’ defensive backfield, if not the defense as a whole.

Defensive coordinator Tracey Claeys has an affinity for leaving his cornerbacks on an island, particularly the primary outside corner, or “boundary” corner in the Gophers defense. At the onset of 2011, that position belonged to Stoudermire. Highlighting his agility and also his strength, Stoudermire could play press coverage on an island without getting beaten like a rented mule, allowing a safety to cheat up in run coverage, take the place of a blitzing linebacker or help in deep zone.

If you remember the USC game, Robert Woods was able to get free on bubble screens and slants early in the game, taking advantage of man coverage and at other times, a soft cushion when he was lined up against Brock Vereen. In the second half though, Claeys was able to disguise coverages between man and zone, confusing Matt Barkley a bit, as he brought a cornerback on a blitz or cheated a safety toward the box. Stoudermire’s ability allowed Claeys to try and hide a glaring hole at safety across from senior Kim Royston. However, Stoudermire snapped a bone in his left forearm against Miami (Ohio) and wasn’t able to make it through the first quarter of the following week’s game against North Dakota State University. It was the last he played in 2011 and the thin defensive secondary unraveled thereafter, before rallying a bit near the end of the year.*

* - I should take a moment to say the pass defense wasn’t the biggest problem in 2011. On passing downs, the Gophers ranked 45 out of all 120 teams in Football Outsiders’ defensive S&P ranking. The Passing S&P as a whole was 63rd, while the rushing S&P ranked 93. The defense as a whole ranked 89th. Granted, the Gophers played from behind a lot and didn’t have nearly as many passing downs as rushing downs, but it is an important distinction nonetheless. MV also pointed these statistics out in his 2012 defensive back preview.

So what is S&P? S&P is a stat combination, similar to OPS in baseball. It is literally defined as the combination of a defense’s efficiency (“Success Rate”) and its explosiveness (“Equivalent Points Per Play). Taken simply, a team that has a good defense stops offenses a lot and doesn’t give up a lot of big scoring plays. Here is a more in-depth definition: A defensive success rate is defined by the percentage of plays targeting a defense in which the offense did not have a “successful” play. Equivalent Points Per Play gives each yard line a point value based on the average amount of points that a team can expect to score from that position on the field. The actual stats are then given a point value compared to that assigned point value. For more information about these terms, check out the Football Outsiders glossary.

When Stoudermire went down, the cornerbacks who stepped in were not able to play press coverage as well without the help of a safety. However, the run defense often needed an extra defender in the box and, well, you should be able to see the dominoes starting to fall.

Although the Gophers have brought in three junior college cornerbacks to provide depth, everyone knows who is No. 1. The better Stoudermire is on the corner, locking down opponents’ best receiving targets, the better the defense will be as a whole. He has returned this spring fully healthy, reportedly looking strong throughout spring and fall practice.

I have to admit I’m surprised to see Stoudermire in this position. In September 2010 he was suspended indefinitely by then-coach Tim Brewster. Stoudermire made a Facebook post about leaving the team, but was reinstated and moved back to defense, where he had started his Gopher career in 2008. Midway through his freshman year in 2008, Brewster moved the speedy corner to wide receiver, in order to capitalize on his playmaking ability. He continued as a kick returner and wide receiver in 2009.

(Important footnote: It was this year against Iowa when Jedd Fisch and Brewster famously called for the Weber to Stoudermire jump ball on the two-yard line on third down, in the fourth quarter. The 5-foot, 10-inch Stoudermire was unable to reel in the pass.)

As Stoudermire’s progress at receiver seemed stagnant, he instantly responded to playing cornerback near the end of 2010 and entered 2011 as the unquestioned No. 1. After last year’s season-ending injury, the NCAA granted him a fifth-year, and he’s now the leader of a young defensive secondary.

If Troy Stoudermire does nothing else in his Gopher career, he will at least be remembered for several years for his brutal fumble-causing hit on Marcus Coker in 2010, a play that guaranteed the Floyd of Rosedale would return to Minnesota. The hit put an exclamation point on the end of the Gophers’ three-year winless streak in rivalry trophy games.

In 2012, the Gophers need him to display more of that flair for the big moment.

Gopher football 15 for 2012: No. 4 - The awakening of Ra'Shede Hageman

Wed, 08 Aug 2012 10:28:13 -0400

4. Ra'Shede Hageman | DT | Junior | 6'6” 300 lbs.
G   TK  Solo  TFL   SK   FF
12  13  10    3.5   2.0  1
Photo credit: Chris Polydoroff/Pioneer Press

Last November at TCF Bank Stadium, Ra’Shede Hageman crouched in his four point stance as Illinois quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase barked out signals and adjusted his offense. The QB snapped the ball and Hageman bull rushed past Illinois center Graham Pocic with a combination of power and speed that would fit in perfectly on a high school recruit’s highlight tape.

Looking at the clip now, there’s no need to put a red circle around Hageman. It’s impossible to ignore him once the play starts. Hageman tosses Pocic out of his way, fends off a desperate flail from a second lineman, Alex Hill, and wraps his arms around Scheelhaase, tossing him to the turf and causing the QB to fumble the ball.

Maybe there was a blocking mishap and Hill was late to his double team. Maybe Hageman was finally realizing the potential he brought to Dinkytown when he enrolled in 2009. Recruiting expert Tom Lemming named him the No. 1 tight end prospect in the nation coming out of Washburn High School, but Hageman was quickly moved to defensive end. He struggled with picking up the techniques of defensive line in his first two years in Minnesota, but stood out near the end of last year with two sacks against Illinois and four tackles against Iowa. Worth noting, his two sacks, 3.5 tackles for loss and 12 of 13 total tackles came within the last six games of the year.

Talent and size will never be an issue with Hageman. It will be technique, football IQ and desire that defines his career. Call him the football team’s version of Rodney Williams. There’s a reason that MV dubbed him “Optimus Prime.”

Can Hageman put it together this year as a junior? So far, reports from the spring are an emphatic “Yes.” But legends are not judged by how well they dominated their teammates in spring practice. Hageman was suspended in 2010 by then interim coach Jeff Horton for academic troubles. Also of note, Hageman was arrested this spring for disorderly conduct, although some blog postings at the the time said that he was trying to break up a fight, rather than start one. The charges were eventually dropped June 11. Hopefully that’s a sign of his progress.

Again, it’s clear Hageman has the potential. The Gophers need him to translate that into consistent production like the Illinois game and the second half of last season, with Hageman wreaking havoc on the opposing offensive line, disrupting both the running and passing games. If Hageman reaches his potential, gone are the days of quarterbacks like Zac Dysert scrambling around like Fran Tarkenton, waiting for receivers to break free. The Gophers should also receive help up front from junior college transfer Roland Johnson.

Some fans have said that Hageman could be the second-most important player on the Gophers this year and I wouldn’t necessarily disagree with them. It’s up to Hageman to finally fulfill that promise.

Gopher football 15 for 2012: No. 5 - Offensive success linked deeply to Ed Olson

Tue, 07 Aug 2012 09:55:43 -0400

5. Ed Olson | LT | Junior | 6'7” 305 lbs.
G    ST
12   10
Photo courtesy of the University of Minnesota Athletic Department

While the Gophers lose three seniors on the offensive line from 2011, they return Olson, who is entering his third year of starting at left tackle for the Gophers. The redshirt junior will again be tasked with guarding quarterback MarQueis Gray’s blindside, but he also becomes the undisputed leader of the offensive line.

Olson is one of two upperclassmen (both juniors) on the Gophers’ very young line and at left tackle, will need to set the tone for the entire group. Last year, injuries hit the offensive line, pushing guys who would have benefitted from another year of seasoning into larger roles; Olson’s brother Tommy started three games as a true freshman due to injuries and a lack of depth. By the end of 2011, only two linemen who started against USC ended the season playing the same line position. Olson was not one of those players.

The idea this year is that hopefully enough depth exists to redshirt the incoming freshmen, that hopefully those returning have matured in Eric Klein’s offseason program — that the reported 20 pounds that each lineman has added will translate on the field and that overall, hopefully the offensive line will be much improved.

It’s probably a bad sign that I used “hope” so much in that paragraph.

Even though he stands 6-foot, 7-inches tall, Olson is not the biggest or most heralded lineman in the Gophers’ stable. He certainly isn’t among the conference’s left tackles – college football blogger Adam Jacobi ranked Olson 10th among the Big Ten’s starting left tackles. However, Olson needs to play as though he is the Gophers’ brightest star up front, especially while the more heralded but younger Jimmy Gjere continues to develop his pass protection. Olson undoubtably brings the most experience to the squad as a two-year starter. If he remains healthy, the Gophers will be able to keep some of the younger linemen on the sidelines. If Olson gets hurt or loses his position, an undersized and unprepared underclassman gets thrown into the unenviable position of trying to block William Gholston.

The offensive line will be the engine for this year’s offense. Without strong play up front, quarterback MarQueis Gray will end up with little time to throw and the running backs will again fail to make much of an impression. For Jerry Kill and Matt Limegrover’s offense to gain traction, they need the offensive line to make some room.

Olson leads that group up front.

Gopher football 15 for 2012: No. 6 - Mike Rallis makes the move inside

Mon, 06 Aug 2012 10:19:09 -0400

6. Mike Rallis | LB | Senior | 6'2” 245 lbs.
G   TK  Solo  TFL  SK   FF  PD
12  83  53    5    1.5  0   2
Photo courtesy of the University of Minnesota Athletic Department

Mike Rallis will start the 2012 season as the Gophers middle linebacker, moving from the outside, where he played for the last two years. Rallis has been a solid player in his career and tallied the third-most tackles on the team in 2011, the most of any returning player. He has grown into a decent linebacker from defensive back, his original position.

First, the good. He’s a dedicated and tireless worker, a player who became a scholarship starter after coming to campus as a preferred walk-on. It’s become regular for him to impress after his offseason workouts; he bulked up once to become a linebacker and now has added another 10 or so pounds to move inside. His acclimation during the spring earned praise from teammate Spencer Reeves and also the player he is replacing, the late Gary Tinsley.

“He’s never played there, but he’s smart enough,” Tinsley told 1500ESPN’s Nate Sandell in March, weeks before Tinlsey’s untimely death. “He’s gotten way bigger. He looks like a middle linebacker.”

But will Rallis be able to seamlessly transition to middle linebacker? As Reeves told 1500ESPN, Rallis probably knows the defense as well as the coaching staff, but Rallis’s problem won’t be knowing where to go, it will be getting there. Will he be able to shed blocks, something he had trouble with as an outside linebacker?

In an ideal world, Brendan Beal would be crushing running backs like pop cans for the Gophers and Rallis would be solid on the outside. In an ideal world, Beal’s knee ligaments wouldn’t be held together with masking tape and wishes granted from pennies thrown into park fountains. Of course, we do not live in an ideal world. We live in a world where last year Purdue – PURDUE! - went to a bowl, Michigan beat the Gophers by nearly 60 points and Wisconsin went to their second consecutive Rose Bowl. Beal has had to deal with several serious, season-long injuries: a torn anterior cruciate ligament in 2008, neck and elbow injuries in 2009 and another knee injury in 2011. To add to the litany of awful luck, he separated his shoulder in his last high school game. Seriously, I don’t know how Beal has the resolve to come back to the football field. I hope he is able to finish at the University with a degree and find success in his eventual career. It’s wishful thinking to expect much from Beal on the field.

* Note: I wrote this a few weeks ago, when Beal’s status was still unknown. He has since been medically cleared for practice, although it’s still unknown what toll his injuries have had on his body. If he can play, I’d expect him to regularly rotate through a few snaps, but I still wouldn’t expect him to be the sole contributor at middle linebacker.

If anyone can make the transition from outside linebacker to middle, Rallis has the right make-up to do so. Again, he’s a dedicated player who senses the importance of senior leadership. More importantly, if he can’t make the transition, the roster is awfully thin at this point of players who could step in. If Minnesota’s defense can continue the improvement it made during the second-half of last season, Rallis will figure to be a large part of it.

Gopher football 15 for 2012: No. 7 - Will Brock Vereen succeed at safety?

Fri, 03 Aug 2012 09:00:39 -0400

7. Brock Vereen | CB | Junior | 6'0” 195 lbs.
G   TK   SOLO  INT  PDEF TFL  FF
12  67   46    1    7    3.5  1
Photo credit: Christy Aumer / Daily Iowan

In 2011, Brock Vereen emerged as a solid tackler and a dependable cornerback. This season, however, he sets out to prove himself again, this time at safety.

Vereen started out last season as the starting cornerback opposite Troy Stoudermire, but was pressed into the No. 1 spot early on after Stoudermire was lost for the season due to injury. There were times, often in the same game, when Vereen would make a bone-crushing hit, but then also bite badly on a double move or pump fake for a touchdown. By the end of the season though, Vereen settled in and provided steady play at corner. Moving to safety, the defense can take advantage of his tackling and ball skills, while taking him out of regular man coverage.

Vereen hails from California and was a three-star prospect (Rivals) coming out of high school. His older brother Shane plays running back for the New England Patriots and played college football for California. Vereen is a smart player and on a note unrelated to football, bears the distinction of being one of the few athletes worth following on Twitter. (His back and forth with teammates about the difference of “to, too, and two” is an example.)

Vereen is expected to earn the free safety spot in fall practice and start alongside sophomore Derrick Wells, who also moved over from cornerback this offseason after bulking up a reported 30 pounds. Also in the mix this year at safety is Cedric Thompson, although Vereen seems to have the inside track on a starting job. While Kim Royston provided strong play and leadership at safety last year, the other safety position was a revolving door. Shady Salamon was the starter at the beginning of the year, but the hard-hitter tended to cover like the former running back he was. By the Illinois game, the starting free safety was former walk-on cornerback Chase Haviland, who stood five-feet, nine-inches tall and weighed 179 pounds. This year, Vereen and Wells are expected to take a position of weakness last year and turn it into a positive.

One expects the defense to utter some growing pains as it moves from the sophomore Wells from Royston, but Vereen brings size, speed and skill into the position, which should allow the Gophers to rely more on the safeties to help out in both run support and pass coverage. Vereen didn’t practice this spring while recovering from a minor knee surgery this offseason, but he will be ready for fall two-a-days.

Defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys told 1500ESPN’s Nate Sandell that he expects some rough patches through the non-conference schedule, which makes the early season match-up with Western Michigan’s chuck-and-duck passing game particularly interesting.

“I’m a little uneasy with the secondary,” Claeys said told Sandell. “One thing I do like about having the non-conference games early is those kids will have a chance to get there feet underneath them and go. As far as their abilities and being able to do the job, I couldn’t be more pleased with those guys. But again, there’s going to be growing pains, because some of them haven’t played a lot of game snaps at the position they are at.”

The secondary should be a position of relative strength and depth this year; banking on Vereen being a solid contributor.

Gopher football 15 for 2012: No. 8 - Keanon Cooper primed for big year

Fri, 03 Aug 2012 08:55:44 -0400

8. Keanon Cooper | LB | Senior | 6'0” 220 lbs.
G   TK  Solo  TFL  SK   FF  PD
12  77  34    6    1.0  2   2
Photo courtesy of the University of Minnesota Athletic Department

One of the most celebrated Gopher recruits in recent memory, much was made of Keanon Cooper’s switch to Minnesota on National Signing Day in 2008. Named to Rivals’ “Big Ten Signing Day Dream Team*” as a safety, Cooper redshirted a year and switched to linebacker.

He has since been a steady and solid presence for the Gophers. For a player who was highly touted coming to Minnesota and who has lettered three times, much has been written about his recruitment, his friendship with the late Gary Tinsley, even how he prefers to wear his jersey. But little has been written about Cooper’s on-field production.

That could change if the senior delivers a stand-out 2012.

* - A note about that “Dream Team”: It hasn’t exactly turned into a who’s who of the Big Ten’s best every Saturday. For example, here is the bulk of the offense (non-linemen):
• Running back Michael Shaw passed the 1,000 yard by one yard at Michigan. In his entire career.
• Fellow running back Terrance Robinson was moved to receiver and has two career catches entering his senior year at Michigan.
• Wide receiver DeVier Posey had a very solid career with Ohio State until his senior year, when he was suspended for 10 games.
• The other wideout, Michigan State’s Fred Smith, was moved to fullback before leaving MSU.
• Tight End Jake Stoneburner has been very good for Ohio State, but he was suspended from the team for the summer.
• The team’s quarterback? MarQueis Gray.
There are some very good players on the list (Mike Adams from Ohio State, for one) and definitely a few guys who are at the least solid contributors. Still, it again shows the difficulty in tabbing 17- and 18-year-olds as future stars or clipboard carriers before they have even reached campus. Too many unknown variables exist. ~~Also, it seems to show that if you go to Ohio State, you’re probably going to be suspended at some point in your career.~~

Playing through a wrist injury much of last year, Cooper totaled fourth on the Gophers in tackles with 77 and tallied the second-most tackles for loss. He has since undergone wrist surgery and was held out of spring practice as a precautionary measure. Cooper also dealt directly with the untimely death of Tinsley; Cooper was the person who found Tinsley unresponsive in his bedroom. Emotionally, I have no idea how a 22-year-old will handle such a tragedy and I’d rather not speculate. Instead, I’ll make an awkward transition back to football.

Cooper is one of the fastest Gophers on the team, if undersized a bit at linebacker. The preceding link directs to a blog entry by Phil Miller of the Star-Tribune in which Cooper bested all comers on the team in heads-up sprints. It seems Cooper may have gotten a bit of a Seinfeld head-start to win, but everyone seemed content with saying he was the team’s fastest player. If not, he’s a step behind Troy Stoudermire. Adding to his athleticism, Cooper is a smart player who has been twice named Academic All-Big Ten.

Cooper was sidelined so far this spring while he recovered from surgery, but he will be ready to play this fall. Even though he had to wear a non-contact jersey this spring, Cooper intently followed along at practice with defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys, said Nate Sandell of 1500ESPN, the senior acting as a leader and quasi-coach for fellow linebackers LaMonte Edwards and James Manuel. Cooper is a smart, fast player who will have a lot expected of him. With Mike Rallis moving over to the middle and learning that position, Cooper needs to be a player who is always in the right position and also someone who can help Rallis along with the transition. He will also need to help the rotating cast of Aaron Hill, Spencer Reeves, Edwards, Manuel and any other linebackers who might play the outside position on the other side of the field. Although Cooper is a bit undersized for run defense and one-on-one tackling, his speed allows him to be a great asset for both blitzing and coverage. More importantly, without the wrist injury this year and a hopefully improved defensive unit, Claeys should be able to utilize Cooper on blitzes more often.

The 2011 defense was decent in passing situations, but struggled against the run. Football Outsiders and Bill Connelly ranked* the Gophers rushing defense 93rd out of 120 teams, while the defense as a whole ranked 89th. With two young, underclassmen possibly starting at defensive end and a converted middle linebacker this year, the defense is going to need the few established players to step up in run coverage when possible.

Still, there is evidence that the Gophers’ defense should slightly improve compared to last year, mainly due to an overhauled secondary and more experienced front-four, specifically Ra’Shede Hageman, Ben Perry and Michael Amaefula. If that defensive improvement occurs, Cooper’s leadership on the field will need to be a large part of it.

* - One way Football Outsiders ranks defenses is by a statistic called “S&P,” which is a stat combination, similar to OPS in baseball. It is literally defined as the combination of a defense’s efficiency (“Success Rate”) and its explosiveness (“Equivalent Points Per Play). Taken simply, a team that has a good defense stops the opposing offense a lot and in turn, doesn’t give up a lot of big scoring plays. Here is a more in-depth definition: A defensive success rate is defined by the percentage of plays targeting a defense in which the offense did not have a “successful” play. Equivalent Points Per Play gives each yard line a point value based on the average amount of points that a team can expect to score from that position on the field. The actual stats are then given a point value compared to that assigned point value. For more information about these terms, check out the Football Outsiders glossary.

Gopher football 15 for 2012: No. 9 - Can Brandon Green finally put it all together?

Wed, 01 Aug 2012 09:18:21 -0400

9. Brandon Green | WR | Senior | 6'0” 190 lbs.
G   REC  YDS   AVG.   TD
12  15   190   12.7   1
Photo courtesy of the University of Minnesota Athletic Department

With Da’Jon McKnight moving on to the NFL, Brandon Green becomes the longest tenured Gopher wide receiver. However, that’s a loaded statement like being named the smartest kid in remedial math class.

Green was the team’s third leading receiver last year by one catch, but again, that’s another loaded statement; if Marcus Jones doesn’t have a knee injury, Jones would have likely passed Green’s receiving total of 15 catches. Although Green is a senior, he has totaled only 56 catches in three years of action.

Caption Obvious alert: The Gophers receiving corps is shallow and unproven. I’m currently writing about the most experienced receiver on the team and he had only 15 catches in his junior year.

Still, Green has potential. A four-star recruit who was part of former coach Tim Brewster’s vaunted 2008 class, Green has had a mostly underwhelming career at Minnesota. As a true freshman in 2008, Green tallied 261 yards in a four game stretch against Purdue, Northwestern, Michigan and Wisconsin. During the same stretch, future Denver Bronco receiver Eric Decker, who was the team’s main source of offense, had 110 yards and missed one game with an injury.

So Green had a great freshman year, right? Well, not exactly.

He ended the season with only 298 yards, only 37 more than that four-game outburst. He had a nondescript sophomore year in 2009 and then suffered a knee injury that caused him to sit out much of the 2010 year. Last year, Green caught one ball in every game, but only added a second when it was a deep pass, like during the Michigan and Northwestern games.

Injuries have robbed some of Green’s explosiveness, offensive coordinator Matt Limegrover told 1500ESPN’s Nate Sandell this spring.

“I feel bad for Brandon,” Limegrover told Sandell. “He was a phenomenal high school player. The injuries have taken some of that away from him. That’s frustrating. It’s frustrating for anybody, any player who has that ability and their body just won’t let them do what they know in their mind and have that mental picture of what they’ve done in the past.”

Quarterback MarQueis Gray’s accuracy is still a large concern, so the receivers need to make the most of their chances. The Gophers simply don’t have the luxury of dropping open passes. Green demonstrated good hands last year in delivering the team’s second highest catch rate with 71.4 percent, but it’s hard to extrapolate that much from a sample size of 21 targets. (In comparison, leading receiver Da’Jon McKnight caught 54.3 percent of his 94 targets. These stats come from the brilliant Bill Connelly of Football Outsiders and Football Study Hall.)

It’s reasonable to expect Green to step up to McKnight’s departed spot, although Marcus Jones’s return from last year’s knee injury makes a murky depth chart more cloudy. Although Jones’s ceiling is much higher at this point, Green has displayed more consistent hands. With the same number of targets, Jones’s catch rate was 42.9 percent. Again, it’s a small sample size.

As I wrote earlier about Jones and Devin Crawford-Tufts, the Gophers need a consistent deep threat or two to emerge. Green isn’t going to suddenly morph into Eric Decker or Ernie Wheelwright, but he has shown glimpses of ability to at least provide sure hands on a deep fade route. If Green doesn’t prove himself in fall practice, he could watch his job slip away to one of the other underclassmen that are now on campus, but the best scenario would be if Green finally delivers on his promise and becomes dependable in 2012.

Gopher football 15 for 2012: No. 10 - The emergence of Jimmy Gjere

Tue, 31 Jul 2012 09:37:29 -0400


10. Jimmy Gjere | RT | Sophomore | 6'7” 325 lbs.
G   ST
5   5

Jimmy Gjere might be the most well-regarded offensive lineman on the Gophers roster; however, he hasn’t been able to fully deliver on the field in his young career. By the same point, it’s important to remember that he’s only entering his redshirt sophomore year. Ideally, Gjere* wouldn’t have taken the field at all last year, instead waiting until his pass protection skills developed.

* - Everyone refers to Gjere as “Jimmy,” although his personal Twitter account says his name is “Jim Gjere.” I feel like we should be calling him “Jim” if that’s what he really wants. Then again, he’s 6-foot, 7-inches tall and weighs more than 300 pounds. Maybe we should call him “Mr. Gjere.”

After starting five games at right tackle last year, Gjere suffered a concussion and missed the rest of the season. Although he was held out of contact during spring practices, Gjere received full medical clearance July 2 to return to the field. He’s expected to start at right tackle and continue to emerge as an an anchor on the offensive line.

As Big Ten blogger Adam Jacobi wrote this spring, “Gjere is, quite simply, the type of player you build an offensive line around.” Gjere came to Minnesota as a four-star recruit out of Irondale High, spurning reported interest from more established Big Ten programs like Ohio State, Iowa and Wisconsin. When Gjere was a high school prospect, Rivals.com Recuriting Analyst Barry Every wrote that Gjere needed to improve his pass protection skills and that could cause his career to start off slowly. Every continued that Gjere “could become a beast” down the line, though, due to his intelligence, quick feet and imposing size.

So far in Gjere’s young career, Every has nailed it.

Gjere performed well in run blocking situations last year, but his lack of experience came to light as more seasoned pass rushers were able to dominate him in pass protection. But those skills should still develop. He is likely the most agile lineman in the Gophers program and his combination of size and speed is exceptional. Gjere has already gained about 30 pounds of good weight since his freshman year and has demonstrated his intelligence in the classroom – he was named Academic All-Big Ten.

A pessimistic outlook is that Gjere is a major question mark entering this year, due to his raw inexperience and injury issues. An optimistic outlook is that Gjere was pressed into action far too early in his career and that he has recovered from his injury – as much as a person can “recover” from a concussion.

Call me an optimist. I fully expect Gjere to continue to develop as a pass blocker and eventually become a mainstay of an offensive line that could become one of the conference’s best in a few years.